Take it or Leave it: 2025 NRL Predictions

We’re officially into NRL Trials Week and the overreactions that come with it. Equally over-the-top is the dismissal of anything promising from a player or team. It’s the time of year when we can’t take too much out of the 80 minutes, but we shouldn’t ignore them either.

I’m most looking forward to seeing any hints of new trends in the game, how new coaches have changed their respective clubs, and which young players have made a leap after a full preseason.

We might not be able to make sweeping predictions for the NRL season ahead, but there will be signs and clues on which to base them before Round 1.

I put the message out for your preseason predictions last week.

I’ll take on a few of those predictions with you, but others I’ll have to leave on their own…

Table of Contents

• Take It or Leave It Mailbag

  • Jaxon Purdue to impress

  • None of the teams who made the eight last time make it this time

  • Bulldogs will consolidate and build on last season

  • Panthers are probably still the team to beat, but Fisher-Harris is a big loss

  • Eels 2025 Our Year

  • Storm win the NRL - Papenhuyzen for Dally M

• My 2025 NRL Thoughts

  • Kobe Hetherington, Dragons Top 8, Scrum Chat & Quick Hits

Take It or Leave It Mailbag

“Jaxon Purdue to impress”

Take It: He’s only 19 years old, but Jaxon Purdue can play a significant role for the North Queensland Cowboys this season. We’ve seen enough in his eight NRL appearances to know he carries good utility value.

He’s started on the wing and in the centres while coming off the bench four times. While he’s still relatively small, he plays above his size in defence and has speed to burn. His try in the 2024 trials did the rounds on social media 12 months ago.

Zac Laybutt provides some competition for him in the centres and is more NRL-ready. In his return from injury, though, he might take some reps at Queensland Cup level.

Whenever Purdue gets his chance in 2025, I expect him to take it and become a fixture in the side. He’s a great option for Todd Payten off the bench.

“None of the teams who made the eight last time make it this time”

Leave It: Despite the Penrith Panthers dominance of late, the NRL is one of the toughest and closes competitions in world sport. There is a constant turnover of teams in and out of the Top 8 every season, and every season, without fail, there’s a contending team tumbling down the ladder while an expected struggler climbs.

Eight of them, though?

No chance.

“Bulldogs will consolidate and build on last season”

Leave It: That isn’t to say the Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs will be worse, but I think they’ll stay around 6th on the NRL ladder and look better doing it.

The Bulldogs struggled in attack at times throughout the 2024 NRL season. Enough to lead some demanding Matt Burton be shifted into the centres…

Improved by the end of the season, the Dogs still only averaged 22 points per game for 10th in the NRL and 7th among the teams to feature in the Top 8.

Of most concern, though, is their record away from home. The Bulldogs finished the season with 14 wins, but only four of them came on the road. While Accor Stadium can make for a strong fortress, I’ll be surprised to see them go 10-2 at home again in 2025. They’ll need to find a few more wins elsewhere to finish higher on the ladder.

“Panthers are probably still the team to beat, but Fisher-Harris is a big loss”

Take It: We’ve all learnt now, surely…

The Penrith Panthers are the team to beat until they’ve been beaten. Everybody has made the mistake of thinking this is the year the Panthers lost too many players at some point over the last three years. Not again.

Having read Ivan Cleary’s Not Everything Counts, But Everything Matters³ over the break, it’s clear that this club is about more than individual talent. It’s a lot clearer now why they’ve been so successful over the last four years despite losing representative-quality players along the way.

James Fisher-Harris is a massive loss. His value is never genuinely appreciated given how little of it shows in the counting stats displayed in the broadcast. Liam Henry and Lindsay Smith as a duo is a nice replacement, though. I’ve seen them play a lot at NSW Cup level, and while they’re not yet Fisher-Harris, both will provide the Panthers with consistency in defence through the middle every week.

Jarome Luai isn’t being replaced quite so confidently. Whatever your opinion of him has a half, his cohesion with Nathan Cleary is unquestioned. It’s been formed over the best part of a decade and can’t be replaced in 2025. It’s there where I think the Panthers will have a few more teething issues.

“Eels 2025 Our Year”

Leave It: First of all, I’m pretty sure Warriors fans have claimed the annual use of “Our Year” - this year included. While I’m sure it has been said in jest here, we are at the part of the NRL season where all players and fans² think their team can win it all. It’s what makes the sport so great.

However, a rookie coach and high roster turnover don’t put the Parramatta Eels in a great spot to contend in 2025.

Jason Ryles has an incredible résumé, but that doesn’t always translate into success early on. He’s not walking into a particularly well-established or cohesive side either. Ryles will have his own systems to implement. It won’t only take time for the players to get a grasp of what their coach wants but for the coaching staff to find out what works and doesn’t.

Parramatta played with a clear style under Brad Arthur. They used a big forward rotation, drop plays and second phase to create opportunities for their run-first halves to attack. It got them as far as an NRL Grand Final. But with Arthur’s sacking comes change. I’m curious to see what adjustments Ryles makes but don’t expect it to translate into a spot in the Top 8 just yet.

“Storm win the NRL - Papenhuyzen for Dally M”

Take It: I’ll sign up to the Melbourne Storm premiership tip every season. Craig Bellamy is a wizard and manages to get the most out of his squad regardless of who is in it.

I love the Stefano Utoikamanu addition.

Harry Grant running behind Utoikamanu AND Nelson Asofa-Solomona?!

Ryan Papenhuyzen pushing up in support, or Cameron Munster running at a retreating and broken defensive line?!

Storm to win the premiership isn’t a bold prediction, but Papenhuyzen to win Dally M is getting there. Health is the major concern. He played 20 games in 2024 but always looked like he was coming back from injury. If he recaptures his form from 2022 in which he scored 14 tries and dished out nine try assists in 12 games, he will be in the conversation.

My 2025 NRL Thoughts

I’ve already highlighted a few players to watch as the NRL Trials approach. Here, I’ll make a few more predictions for the season as a whole, which I’ll come back to later in the year. No doubt a few will need correcting…

Breakout Player: Kobe Hetherington

If the reports are accurate and Kobe Hetherington is going to start at lock and push Patrick Carrigan to prop, this Brisbane Broncos forward pack just got a lot tougher.

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