NRL Round 8 Review: Preseason Predictions Check, Sin Bins & Olakau'atu On The Ball

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The ANZAC Round can feel like a turning point in an NRL season.

What we’re seeing starts to become real. The “it’s early” dismissal of anything not going well no longer applies. We’re approaching the State of Origin period, during which the NRL ladder can be turned on its head.

So, with that in mind, I’m checking in on my preseason predictions before casting an eye over the latest round of footy.

What's to come this week...

• Preseason Predictions Check

• Quick Play-the-Balls

  • Sin Bin Round

  • Olakau’atu Out The Back

  • Reynolds Against 12 Men

• Setting Up For A Shot: Penrith’s Game Plan

• Try Time: Tigers Script A Tap Set

Big Takeaway From the Week: Preseason Predictions Check

Tackle one can make or break a set of six. First up here, we’re breaking down what makes for the biggest talking point of the week.

Now that we’re two months into the 2025 NRL season, it feels like the right time to check in on the pre-season predictions to see what has gone right and reevaluate what hasn’t.

✅ “Whenever Purdue gets his chance in 2025, I expect him to take it and become a fixture in the side.”

It’s nice to get a couple right early in the season.

Playing all seven games for six tries and three try assists, it’s fair to say the 19-year-old has impressed. He’s proving elusive with the ball, and despite his age and inexperience at the centre position, hasn’t jumped out as a target in the line for the opposition. In fact, according to Stats Insider’s Try Location Analysis, the Cowboys have conceded only 33% of their tries down Purdue’s side of the field.

Purdue is a fixture in the side and is unlikely to be displaced given his current form.

🤔 “I think they’ll [Bulldogs] stay around 6th on the NRL ladder and look better doing it.”

While they sit at the top with only one loss to their name, I’m still sitting on “around 6th” for the Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs - for now.

Their defence has proven to be top-notch, but the Brisbane Broncos exposed it in Round 8. The suspensions resulting from that game will also impact the next month of footy.

It’s easy to say now, but they’ve not faced a particularly tough draw either: Dragons (10th), Titans (14th), Eels (16th), Sharks (7th), Knights (15th) and Rabbitohs (11th).

I covered my surprise at their hot start last week. I think they’ll come back to the pack sooner or later, though.

❌ “The Penrith Panthers are the team to beat until they’ve been beaten.”

Well, they’ve been beaten six times already.

It should have been obvious that the Panthers would struggle to start the season. Unlike previous years, in which they’ve had ready-made replacements for players they’d lost, the depth just isn’t there for Ivan Cleary at the moment. What he does have is young and not accustomed to the grind of week-to-week first grade—particularly not the style in which Penrith plays.

This is still a good team at full strength, but we might not see it at full strength for an extended run until after the State of Origin period. By then, it might be too late to make the finals.

✅ “I’m curious to see what adjustments Ryles makes, but don’t expect it to translate into a spot in the Top 8 just yet.”

We’ve not really had an opportunity to see those adjustments just yet.

The Parramatta Eels aren’t a Top 8 team. We can be reasonably confident in that call already. However, they did look a lot better with Mitchell Moses on the field in Round 7.

“Call it structure, flow, or whatever you like. Everybody watching could see and feel how much better Parramatta looked with Moses out there.” - The Moses Flow

Dylan Walker will help in those adjustments, too. His ball-playing ability adds another layer to the Eels attack. Any time you can move Moses between first-receiver and onto the second layer is a nightmare for the defence.

Their clash with the Sharks to open Magic Round will teach us a lot about where this group is at after the bye.

❌ “Hetherington won’t carry the SuperCoach scores to get him recognised as a top forward in the NRL, but I think he can get there with a full season starting in first grade.”

He’s not carrying the form to be recognised as a top forward in the NRL either at the moment…

Kobe Hetherington is at his best in a prime Jake Trbojevic, low-tackle role through the middle. Make your mark in defence. When you’re surrounded by the destruction of Payne Haas and Pat Carrigan’s ball-playing, the Broncos lock role can be boiled down to being the defensive force. Unfortunately, we’ve not seen a lot of that through eight rounds.

🤔 “Despite winning only 11 last season before losing Hunt and Lomax, Flanagan has recruited well enough for the Dragons to improve in 2025.

The St George Illawarra Dragons are 10th on the NRL ladder after Round 8 - roughly where they finished last season.

From a wins and losses perspective, we’ve yet to see that improvement. It's not enough for them to crack the Top 8, as I suggested before the season kicked off, anyway. However, I’m still tipping them to go close if not feature in the finals.

They’ve blown a couple of leads already this season. Their loss to the Parramatta Eels in Round 5 was a shocker. Still, the Dragons’ attack is proving tough to handle as they load up their spine on one side of the field and ask the defence to do their best. It might be somewhat obvious where the ball is going, but with how many ball players the Dragons have to move the ball, along with a floating Tyrell Sloan off the wing, they’re overloading the longside effectively.

If Flanagan can inspire an improvement in their concentration across 80 minutes, the Red V are a finals contender.

✅ “The play directly off the scrum base presents a golden opportunity for points and is one I think we will see used more effectively this season.”

As a scrum set play nerd, I’m happy to see this one ring true after eight rounds. We’re only going to see more variations throughout the season, too.

The Sydney Roosters’ triple bluff last week is a prime example of how previous scrum setups birthed another variation - this time down the short side against a 6-0 defensive line.

Where we’ve always seen scripted sets from a scrum start, there seems to be a lot more time spent on executing from the scrum base at the moment.

It’s a valuable attacking opportunity that we’re seeing more teams use effectively this season.

Reply to this email with any of your predictions after Round 8 for the next instalment of Take It Or Leave It.

Quick Play-the-Balls

We’re generating momentum through the middle of the article with a couple of quick carries.

Sin Bin Round

The 18 sin bins are the true biggest talking point of Round 8.

However, I don’t think so much time needs to be dedicated to discussing something so predictable.

It's the latest in the usual cycle in which obvious mistakes are made and a gross overcorrection follows before it returns to normal 3-4 weeks later. We’ve just cleared four weeks since those mistakes in Round 4. We won’t see half as many sin bins in Round 9, particularly with State of Origin around the corner.

Olakau’atu Out The Back

Haumole Olakau’atu is one of the most destructive ball-carriers in the NRL. He’s towards the top of the opposition tip sheet every week. They’ll be adding ‘ball-player’ to the sheet fairly soon, too.

He’s had it in his bag for a little while now, but with Tom Trbojevic healthy, Olakau’atu seems to add another dimension to his game through the pass.

This is a beauty.

Trbojevic shows himself to the defence in what appears to be a typical block shape behind his backrower.

Put a lead inside three and look for a three-on-two situation out wide - simple.

But the Sea Eagles change it up as Daly Cherry-Evans quickly fires the ball to Olakau’atu out wide. He’s on the three-man as a ball-player now, and few fullbacks in the NRL can execute against a jamming defence as well as Trbojevic.

It’s simple, but when you carry so much weight as a ball-carrier first, the pass is particularly effective.

Reynolds Against 12 Men

Throughout Round 8, we saw too many examples of how not to attack against 12 men. Teams often look to strike straight away by using their extra man to go around the short-handed defence. However, like almost everything positive in rugby league, it starts in the middle.

I love this look from the Broncos and what it does to the two-in defender.

It keeps him tight. Despite the Broncos fanning out across the field, he has to honour Payne Haas on the line and the possibility of a Patrick Carrigan popping up out of the back of a block first.

Bronson Xerri makes the correct guess and gets off the line fast. But by being kept so tight to start with, the space remains on the edge for Adam Reynolds to chip the ball over the top.

Attacking against 12 men can be simple when you’ve got a master halfback pulling the strings.

Setting Up For A Shot: Penrith’s Game Plan

Teams play to points with the following tackle in mind. Here, I’m touching on something to watch next week as we try to keep ahead of things happening on the field.

The Penrith Panthers aren’t themselves at the moment. Their depth has been stretched, and the once formidable game plan has come unstuck as a result.

Their error numbers are particularly telling.

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