NRL Finals: Sydney Roosters v Manly Warringah Sea Eagles Preview

Only five games remain in the 2024 NRL season. It's do-or-die from here, so I've picked out a few of the deciding factors for the weekend ahead.

Roosters rushing the middle

James Tedesco, Daniel Tupou, Joseph Sua’ali’i, Joey Manu, Dom Young.

Although the Sydney Roosters have been hit hard by major injuries recently, their back-five is still one of the best in the NRL.

There are plenty of points in this Roosters team on the edges if they can get the ball there.

Trent Robinson might employ a no-frills approach to this game. They have the forwards to run hard and straight. Where other teams might rely on ball playing to pass bodies into spots, Lindsay Collins, Jared Waerea-Hargreaves, Spencer Leniu and Terrell May all do their best work tucking the ball under their arm and charging forward.

No Roosters forward threw more than three passes last week. Collins, Angus Crichton and Nat Butcher didn't throw any. If we go back to Round 25, before so much changed for this team, both Butcher and Sitili Tupouniua threw six each, while May, Crichton and Waerea-Hargreaves all moved the ball on twice each.

Naufahu Whyte and Tupouniua show no signs of looking to pass the ball here against the Panthers in Week 1.

But it allowed the Roosters to get to their spots and organise the attack to engage certain defenders. In this case, it's Sandon Smith getting at the defender five-in while Luke Keary makes a line for Nathan Cleary with a Crighton lead outside him.

The key for the Roosters making the most of what is still a stacked backline by getting to their points. They'll do that by winning the yardage battle, playing on the front foot, and dictating field position.

Sea Eagles stepping up in yardage

The Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs profile is perfect for capitalising on any back five that isn’t dominant in yardage. They use Matt Burton’s boot to get the ball deep in opposition territory. From there, they front-load their defence by working hard from marker and pushing ball carriers into a thick defensive line.

There is only so much you can do as a back five against the Bulldogs defence, particularly when you’re an 82kg winger like Lehi Hopoate.

The Manly Warringah Sea Eagles back five made up only 581 running metres in Week 1.

Hopoate and Tommy Talau combined for only 150 metres on 28 carries for just 5.4 metres per carry. Reuben Garrick isn’t the biggest metre-eater at centre and fell 10 metres short of his 124-metre season average while 50 of Tolutau Koula’s 131 metres came on the game-winning try.

Expect the Sydney Roosters to take an approach similar to the Bulldogs. They’ve been given the blueprint to contain the Sea Eagles in yardage. In response, I expect Manly to move the ball more often.

That isn't to say they mindlessly shift the ball, but they play out sets similar to this one more often.

It starts with Hopoate returning the kick ahead of a Reuben Garrick carry. Note that he makes a line for the much smaller Reed Mahoney in the line.

Talau then puts his hand up for a yardage carry. I'd imagine he had one eye on Toby Sexton in the line, but the halfback gets up high in front of his line and forces Talau back into the big bodies.

The Sea Eagles look ready to move the ball, but some dodgy service from dummy half and space in behind the ruck allows Nathan Brown to play the ball inside to Josh Aloai, who again picks out Mahoney.

That's the momentum carry the Sea Eagles want to move the ball.

It ends up being a teaching moment for Hopoate. While Trbojevic could have taken the tackle himself, Hopoate has to take the inside shoulder here and do his best without getting pushed into touch.

Still, it's an indication of how the Sea Eagles can approach their yardage sets without so much reliance on a relatively small back five taking tough carries. If the Sea Eagles can get up the field, the Roosters will struggle to keep them from scoring.