NRL Analysis: Why missed tackles aren't an accurate measure of defence

This NRL season is wild…

Favourites to go to Suncorp Stadium and move to 7-0, the Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs were on the end of a Brisbane Broncos ambush on Thursday night.

Now onto the rest of ANZAC Round, where missed tackles are something to keep an eye on. Plus, we’re looking out for Melbourne Storm’s response to a poor Round 7, the North Queensland Cowboys ’ right edge defence, and how the Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks distribute their touches.

What's to come:

• Breaking down four missed tackles & three tries

• Weekend Watchlist

  • Melbourne’s response

  • Cowboys right edge defence

  • Sharks distribution

Breaking down four missed tackles & three tries

A moment during the Parramatta Eels’ win over the Wests Tigers in Round 7 inspired this one.

Parramatta had just scored three tries in nine minutes, and Fox Sports displayed a graphic on screen to highlight their dominance even further.

Despite conceding three tries in back-to-back-to-back sets, the Tigers missed only six tackles in that time. The commentary team soon mentioned the fact that Parramatta had missed more tackles for the match at the 50th minute mark.

I’ve covered this before, but it's another example of why missed tackle numbers don’t always accurately reflect how well a team or player defends.

We often see tackle efficiency used in isolation for why a player or team is good or bad defensively. It’s not only a fairly unreliable number, but it should also be judged differently by position.

You need to be in a position to miss a tackle. Missing a tackle isn’t good, but missing the chance to make one is far worse, but not measured.

Let’s take a look at the three tries Parramatta scored while Wests only missed six tackles, and see what really goes wrong.

Jarome Luai misses one on Kelma Tuilagi’s way to the line for the first…

But he isn’t the only player at fault. If anything, he’s done as much as he should have needed to do.

What’s missing in this one is Brent Naden outside him at left centre holding his nerve and coming over the top of Luai’s legs tackle to bring Tuilagi to ground. Instead, he shot out at the fullback and guessed on the pass.

Three of those six missed tackles come in one play as Sam Tuivaiti crashed over the line from dummy half.

Sometimes, it is as simple as counting missed tackles to break down a try…

The third try, however, doesn’t even feature one, but it does contain a couple of different defensive errors that won’t show up on the stats sheet or SuperCoach scores.

Bailey Simmonson’s carry is strong, and he wins the contact up top. In doing so, he controls the momentum of the tackle as Jack Bird and Sione Fainu struggle to contain him. Terrell May isn’t able to complete the job around the legs initially, which forces a fourth Tiger, Api Koroisau, to join.

Simmonson being the player to carry the ball is notable. Parramatta is left with only three players down their short side - effectively, little threat. Jahream Bula makes the right move in putting himself at A on the shortside with Mitchell Moses sniffing around the ruck.

However, while Koroisau works to get himself into the defensive line, May is late and on the wrong side of the ruck. The markers aren’t square, either.

With only five on the long side to Parramatta’s seven, Wests are outnumbered and left with only two defending from the left post to the sideline.

Dylan Walker does an excellent job of playing direct off the ruck to hold the space on the edges. With it, the Eels’ left edge has the speed and skill to capitalise on the cue they’ve been given.

Not a missed tackle in sight.

Weekend Watchlist

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