The Rugby League Writers NRL Round 15 Preview Newsletter gets you ready for the upcoming round of action with tips, previews, our Saturday watchlist and best bets.
Round 15 NRL Tips
Oscar and Jason are going head-to-head in a tipping competition with a twist this season. To make things interesting, a winning bet on Thursday or Friday night can set up a huge week with the total number of correct tips in the round multiplied by the odds of the winning punt.
| Thursday | Friday | Saturday | Sunday | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oscar | Rabbitohs | Cowboys/Storm | Sharks/Panthers/Eels | Raiders/Tigers |
| Jason | Rabbitohs | Sea Eagles/Storm | Sharks/Panthers/Roosters | Raiders/Bulldogs |
2022 Results
| Oscar | Jason | |
|---|---|---|
| Correct Tips | 73 | 77 |
| Bet boosted score | 95.5 | 119.7 |
Oscar: I’ve got a feeling this one might be closer than we think. Tom Gilbert is a hugely underrated out for North Queensland alongside Heilum Luki but they do get back Reuben Cotter and Jeremiah Nanai this week. Conversely, Manly welcome back Daly Cherry-Evans and the recent form of Tolutau Kolou, Josh Aloiai and Haumole Olakau’atu among others has the Sea Eagles flying right now. I still like the Cowboys, but I think it’ll be close. North Queensland Cowboys 1-12 @ $3.20.
Jason: Shout out to Peta Hiku for the meat pie last week and the big lead in the tipping comp coming into this one. With a little bit of a cushion I’m going big to start the round with a couple of speculator tips over the weekend. As a matter of fact, Oscar’s piece on Campbell Graham has talked me into my punt for this one. Campbell Graham first try scorer @ $14.
“Heads In” – State of Origin Review
We’ve added Oscar’s feature segment to the Newsletter to preview every round. In his feature this week, he takes a look at South Sydney’s resurgent left edge.
Sign up for a Premium membership to unlock the full piece including his head-noise talking points and Super Coach Game Theory for the week.
Campbell Graham’s impact on South Sydney’s improving left edge
In a month where Alex Johnston has scored eight tries in four games to be crowned South Sydney’s greatest ever try scorer, it’d be rude not to talk about the Rabbitohs’ much improved left edge in attack.
The departure of Dane Gagai, the absence of Latrell Mitchell and a switch to the right edge for Keaon Koloamatangi has slowed what was not so long ago the most dangerous edge in the competition, but 14 rounds in and Jason Demetriou is starting to work things out. Cody Walker is playing better (albeit well below his ceiling) while Lachlan Ilias continues his development, but it was a move for Campbell Graham to left centre in Round 10 that has seen the Rabbitohs score 11 tries in four games down that edge to recapture some of their prior form.
Graham is an extremely well-rounded NRL player.
With 146 average run metres per game (third best among full-time centres as per FoxSports Lab), Graham is ultra reliable working the ball out of Souths’ own end. He also ranks third across the competition for tackle efficiency among centres while his 38 one-on-one tackles is the second most from a centre in 2022 per FoxSports Lab.
Safe under the high ball, a good defender and sound attacking player on either edge, Graham is one of the more reliable and versatile players in the competition. And when asked to step up from ‘reliable and well rounded’ to become a focal point of the Rabbitohs attack in 2022, Graham has not disappointed.
It’s no coincidence that Johnston’s recent try scoring feats have coincided with Graham’s move to the left edge. Likewise with Walker and his try assists numbers this year. Johnston scored six tries from his opening 9 games this year but has crossed eight times in the four he’s played beside Graham the last month. Walker, meanwhile, has five assists in the past month after registering none across the opening five weeks of the season. With a variety of quick hands, line running and most importantly, offloading, Graham has quickly become the spear tip of Souths’ left edge and they all look better for it.
We’ll start with this one given it’s how South Sydney scored so many tries in 2021.
Last year it was Mitchell providing those lovely soft hands but in his absence Demetriou has adjusted their shapes to get Graham into these areas on the field. Graham’s positioning and timing is excellent and the opposing winger can’t jam in time as Graham collects the pass and flicks it away to Johnston into space. As good as that pass was, we need to also give credit to Johnston here for holding Jamayne Isaako up in cover with a subtle swerve before making a beeline for the corner. Not all wingers would’ve scored that one.
Graham has shown he has a similar sense for spacing out on that edge, as evident by the timing of passes like this:
Souths set up for this one beautifully with Walker and two decoy runners in tight formation around Ilias as the halfback takes possession at pivot. In unison, Ilias straightens on his run while the support runners fan out around him and suddenly Walker is running at a retreating edge defence. Graham receives the ball in space and smartly sums up the situation to engage Starford To’a just long enough to leave Johnston with space to score in the corner. It’s simple catch-and-pass footy but again, not every centre gets those right.
Where Graham brings a real point-of-difference to the centre position though, is in his line running and offloading ability.
South Sydney have Graham listed at 197cm and 95kgs but I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a little heavier than that. His sheer size demands attention from the defence and his line running provides the anchor Souths need to run their left edge shifts, à la Gagai in 2021.
An awful defensive effort from the Titans here only accentuates the impact Graham can have as a decoy. Patrick Herbert is loaded up on his inside shoulder waiting to jam Graham, so much so that he doesn’t even push off his opposite man as the ball goes wide for Johnston to score. Particularly in good field position, Graham’s ability to compress the defence with a genuine decoy line will help Johnston to a few more tries in 2022.
But it’s the offloading that I really want to talk about.
Across his first 94 NRL games, Graham threw just 27 offloads. That’s seriously low numbers for an outside back in a good attacking side, not to mention one who clearly has the physical attributes required to promote the footy.
I noticed it after Souths beat the Roosters in Round 4 and the Rabbitohs coaching staff must have, too.
In the nine games since, Graham has thrown 12 offloads – almost half what he managed in almost 100 games prior – and they are already translating into four points for his teammates.
Back in Round 5 against the Dragons and still on the right edge, this offload pass for Mitchell is one Graham looks purpose built for. A big left hand fend keeps Moses Suli at bay and gives Graham room to bring that long right arm around as he looks for support. Even if Suli had managed to close the space, you’d like Graham’s chances to reach around him and flick the ball back inside for Mitchell to score.
Graham is so big and rangy that bringing him down and wrapping up the ball that close to the line is too much for one defender to manage – and sometimes even two or three.
This will be remembered as the try that earned Johnston the top try scorer’s gong, but Graham’s effort here is just as newsworthy. Ilias does a nice job to straighten the attack and create the space for Graham on the edge, before passing his big centre straight between To’a and Asu Kepaoa. Both Tigers get plenty of purchase on Graham but he stands tall in the tackle to get the ball above the defence and pop it out for an unmarked Johnston. Try time.
Graham’s versatility and reliability has translated into a highly active attacking role in this Rabbitohs side. It’s a credit to Demetriou and the coaching staff for unlocking that offload and for switching Graham to the left edge. It’s a better balance than having Graham and Koloamatangi locking down either edge, and as either a crash runner, decoy or link man, Graham is helping get the most out of Walker and Johnston in attack.
It’s probably the bias in me but I think it’s a crime Graham isn’t closer to an Origin call up than he appears to be. For now though, I’m happy to watch him go to work on Souths’ revived left edge again this week.
Saturday Notepad
The Notepad identifies one key player, stat, trend or talking point for every team, every round of the 2022 NRL season.
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Sharks
Siosifa Talakai played only his 15th game in the centres when he ripped through the Sea Eagles right edge to score two tries and hand out three try assists in one of the great individual performances in Round 7. However, in typical rugby league fashion (we can’t just have a player dominate a game without him becoming something he’s not) Talakai became the talk of the town. He was all of a sudden one of the best centres in the game and a State of Origin candidate.
It’s unfair to put so much on a player but it happens every time. As is the case most of those times, that player doesn’t live up to the hype. Not bad by any means, Talakai hadn’t scored since that game against the Sea Eagles until he skipped past Rocco Berry on his way to the line on Sunday.
His 218 running metres in Round 14 was the most since the Manly match, too.
Origin teams have been named and Talakai is no longer part of the conversation. He had the opportunity to rest and reset through the bye round and has a Test for Tonga coming up next week. Things have settled down for the 25-year-old and I expect that to translate into an uptick in form to finish the 2022 NRL season.
Titans
Greg Marzhew should have the Titans left wing spot locked down for the next few years.
He’s the best winger on the roster.
Effective in yardage to average 157 running metres per game, his destructive ball-carrying style saw him create something out of nothing to score last week.
There is nothing on here. It’s a poor shift, Toby Sexton throws the pass and hopes for the best, and it takes a superb Marzhew carry breaking through three defenders all in position to make the tackle to score.
Relying on a guy to do it all himself is a little bit too familiar for the Titans (see, David Fifita), but at least they have two options now. Keep feeding him the ball.
Warriors
It may not look like it on the scoreboard but the Warriors looked a little bit better in Round 14.
They’ve slowly moved away from Nathan Brown’s “playing footy” style of play. That started around their loss to the Sharks in Round 9. It became clear that the idea of running the opposition around and playing side-to-side isn’t going to work if it didn’t against 11 and 12 men. If anything, it perfectly highlighted what was wrong with that approach and Brown seemed to concede.
We saw the Warriors produce the sort of actions many had hoped for before the season started. I highlighted this one on Monday and it’s something we will see plenty of on Saturday, but most likely from the Panthers.
Outside of the focus on the middle, I’m excited to see Ronald Volkman play.
Throwing him into the deep end against the defending premiers isn’t exactly the way I would do it but Stacey Jones has faith in the 19-year-old so let’s see what he’s got.
Volkman will take the line on. He has a handy left foot step and a good show of pace off the mark. While the Warriors are last in the NRL in offloads with only 7.1 per game, Volkman running at a scattered line on the second-phase is an area he could produce a highlight.
I’m concerned for the Warriors in this one and the reaction from Jones next Tuesday ahead of their return to New Zealand, but crazy things happen in this competition.
Sidenote: The discussion around Shaun Johnson needing to be dropped is mind-numbing. He’s not playing his best football but he isn’t the reason for the Warriors’ struggles on the field and is most likely part of their solution. Before parroting the easy anti-Johnson gear, listen to Fonzie breakdown his performance last week here.
Panthers
There is a bit of a trend developing with Viliame Kikau…
After kicking the ball for a total of 114 metres across the first 98 games of his NRL career, he’s ticked up 101 kicking metres in only 13 games in 2022. He’s put boot to ball in back-to-back weeks to combine for 47 of those kicking metres.
This one in Round 13 looked more like an error on the count from Sean O’Sullivan:
But having seen Kikau instinctively look straight for his boot when the defence saw Nathan Cleary in the tackle and rushed out at Jarome Luai on the last, he must have a licence.
The Panthers have used Kikau as a decoy a lot more over the last two seasons. He’s featured as a ballplayer out the back of left shifts on occasion, too. Is rolling in a grubber for Izack Tago or Taylan May the next variation he adds to his game?
Up against a poor Warriors right edge and a fullback that is still very much learning the defensive side of the game, this could be the one Kikau tries it on closer to the line.
Eels
It’s a tough week to look into the Eels.
Of course, the Eels faithful are eager to see how they respond to their poor performance last week. How many times have we been here already, though?
What good is a bounce back this week if they’re going to need another in the not too distant future?
The Eels producing horror performances has occurred too often in recent years. I, personally, seem to pick the wrong way with them every time. Having sat on the fence before last season and considered them a chance at dropping out of the Top 8, they played well for most of the year and spent the majority of it inside the Top 4.
As recently as a month ago I had Parramatta on a tier of their own behind the Storm and Panthers. Now, I can’t see them stringing together enough wins in September to make it past the Preliminary Final if they get that far at all.
A good performance on Sunday will help make up for last week but do little for my faith in them as premiership smokey’s.
Roosters
When picturing Roosters before the 2022 NRL season kicked off, this is what I saw:
Luke Keary to Sam Walker. Walker to Joey Manu. Joey Manu flick out the back to Joseph Suaalii.
Add Sam Verrills in at hooker for this one and the consistency that will hopefully come with a natural hooker behind the ruck in the coming weeks and we might finally start to see the Roosters at their best.
A lot depends on the health of Keary, obviously. There are conflicting reports about the seriousness of his knock last week and whether or not he passed the HIA. The Roosters can be trusted to put the player first so it won’t be a surprise to see him rubbed out of this one if there are any lingering effects. If he’s good to go and we have Verrills at hooker, Keary on the ball and Walker floating, this is the Roosters I imagined.
Back to that try for a minute, though.
Walker’s dummy is what had people talking but it’s the tuck under the arm to commit the defence before releasing the pass that seals the deal.
He is ridiculously calm and composed for somebody so young.
Sandwich Stakes
We’re putting a tenner down on a couple of games each round to pay for a few sandwiches during the working week.
Oscar: I cannot wait for this game. The Roosters were in some throwback form last week until both halves left the field through injury whereas the Eels lost by 30 points to the 15th-placed Bulldogs. Both sides will be looking to rebound and I think they’ll do so with their defence. SGM: either team by 10 or less / under 41.5 total match points @ $2.87.
Jason: The Sea Eagles have collected in back-to-back weeks and I’m going back to the well again in Round 15. Their +4.5 is a little bit slim but I like this one to be relatively close. The Cowboys are on fire but it’s a tough time of year for an unexpectedly Origin-riddled side and they’ve not been asked to do much away from Queensland yet this season. Playing at Brookvale is a bit of a leveler. Either team by 10 or less @ $1.92.