We want to write about what you want to read about, so we’re continuing with NRL Q&A this week. Fill out the form below and get in touch.
If your question coming through on Twitter or Facebook goes unanswered here today, there’s a good chance we touch on it in other columns throughout the week so keep an eye out.
Q1: Can South Sydney withstand Penrith’s attacking onslaught or will their fairly troublesome defence crumble under the pressure?
That’s the big thing to watch out for this week.
As I’m sure you’re aware, defence wins premierships. I looked into how premiership winning teams have defended throughout the NRL era during the lock down last year and wrote this for Stats Insider. In summary:
Since 2006, only the 2015 Cowboys have entered the finals with a defence outside the top three and gone on to win the premiership. The 2005 Tigers are the real outliers in the NRL era conceding 23.95 points per game during the regular season, a number that would have ranked 15th in 2019. But, for the most part, premiership-winning teams have been at the top end for an average rank of 2.7 since 1998.
The Penrith Panthers are an incredible defensive team conceding just 7.2 points per game. The South Sydney Rabbitohs with Latrell Mitchell back in the side certainly have the attack to trouble the Panthers, but you’re right, it’s on the other side of the ball they will struggle. Already conceding 19.6 points per game, I don’t think the Rabbitohs defence will improve too much this week, if it does at all.
Cohesion is such an important part to an NRL defence and the Rabbitohs haven’t had a chance to develop it on the edges. While Jaydn Su’A has played every game in the back row and Keaon Koloamatangi has found a home out wide, Alex Johnston, Dane Gagai, Campbell Graham, Josh Mansour, Jaxson Paulo, Stephen Marsters, Braidon Burns and Taane Milne have all spent time rotating through the centre and wing positions over the last five rounds. It’s no surprise that the left edge (the side kept together the most) has only let through nine tries this season compared with 16 down the right side.
Mansour returns this week and joins Johnston and Gagai as three of the first-choice outside backs, but Graham is still a week or two away.
This question may have a different answer when the two teams next meet in Round 23, but not this week.
Q2: Which teams consistently struggle coming out of their own end, and does that correlate with ladder position? Be it starting position or metres gained p/set.
Friend of the site Rugby League Eye Test just answered this among the Round 10 stats and trends article for the week. I’m sure he won’t mind me sharing this image below. Still, click through to the site for a more detailed look at the distribution of play-the-ball’s this season and follow the Twitter account.
What we can see above is the proportion of play-the-ball’s split into three sections: own half, opp midfield and opp 20.
There is some correlation with ladder position.
The Panthers spend the least amount of time inside their own half and sit at the top of the NRL ladder. The Broncos and Bulldogs are towards the top of the above list but the bottom of the NRL ladder. I’ve never been convinced about the Dragons being able to sustain their place on the ladder and this adds more fuel to that. Likewise, the Knights have fallen off a cliff and it’s largely down to a poorly performing and directionless middle.
However, as mentioned by Rugby League Eye Test, it’s when you look at how teams defend and the proportion of opposition play-the-balls across the three areas that you start to see a correlation. The Eels (64.8%), Storm (64.0%), Panthers (62.8%) and Rabbitohs (59.5%) are the four best teams at pinning the opposition in their own end. They make it difficult for the opposition to work out of their own end and it eventually pays off.
Net running metres is another factor to consider. The Panthers, Storm, Eels and Rabbitohs occupy the top four spots in net running metres while the Sharks, Broncos and Bulldogs end up as the bottom three.
Q3: How young is too young for players to make their NRL debuts? If they possess the talent eg Walker, Walsh shouldn’t they get started under the right fostering from their coaches?
You’ve answered a lot of this with “under the right fostering of their coaches” for me. Every player is different so I’m not sure that there is “too young” as such. Sam Walker is clearly ready to be playing regular first-grade football from a talent perspective, but he’s only out there by necessity at the moment. Craig Fitzgibbon said he didn’t expect Walker to play at all this season. Likewise, they’ve had numerous chances to crowbar Joseph Suaalii into the side already this season but have refrained. I’d imagine that Trent Robinson’s ideal scenario this year is to have the opportunity to rest Walker at some stage.
While everybody had an opinion over Suaalii playing first-grade throughout the preseason, Walker was able to make his debut without a fuss. It all happened so quickly. People didn’t have time to make up their mind based on nothing but a number. In reality, we in the stands don’t know how ready these players are mentally until they’re out there. Even then it’s difficult to quantify. It comes down to trust. Trent Robinson is one of those coaches we can trust to make the right decision for the player rather than his win-loss record.
Other coaches, on the other hand, may require a blanket rule on what is and isn’t old enough. Reece Walsh has had some really good moments for the Warriors this season, but does he need to be out there? Probably not. Especially with Roger Tuivasa-Sheck filling his position. Walsh is capable but there is an argument for reserve grade being the best place for him both in regards to his on-field development and adjustment to the rigors of regular professional football.
Nathan Brown talked about his age being a factor in why he isn’t playing 80 minutes every week before talking about how demanding the position is for even the most seasoned professional:
“Reece is 18. He’s young. People probably aren’t aware of it but he played two years ago at the end of the year for the Australian Schoolboys. Last year he didn’t play and he’d played two or three Q Cup games before he got to us,” Brown told media on Wednesday.
“So for an 18-year-old to have only three or four games of footy in 18 months, then to become a starting first-grader in one of our more demanding positions is probably a little unrealistic, or not fair to do it every week.”
However, the Warriors are a better team with Walsh in it and Brown doesn’t have the job security Robinson does. As a result, he’s going to try harder to get him in the side when even he might prefer to play him in reserve grade in an ideal world.
It’s situational. For every player that has started young and gone onto future success, there is another that has fallen away early into their career. Perhaps they would have been just as successful or unsuccessful starting later?
That’s a lot of rambling to say ‘ it’s different for every player and every situation.’