The Penrith Panthers produced one of the great NRL seasons last year. They face a mighty challenge in improving on it in 2021.
2020 Wrap
It all went close to perfect for the Penrith Panthers throughout the 2020 NRL season.
Until it didn’t.
Unbeaten since Round 5 heading into the Grand Final, the Panthers entered the big dance with the best defence in the competition, a top-four attack, and a youthful exuberance that continued to smile through doubts around their finals experience in the build-up to finals wins over the Roosters and Rabbitohs.
But Penrith fell one win short of lifting the Provan-Summons Trophy. They couldn’t get past a more experienced Melbourne Storm side with a better attack and defence just as strong. Still, once the dust settled on the Grand Final defeat, 2020 could only be considered a success for the Panthers.
Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai have set the table for years of dominance in the halves while Dylan Edwards and Api Koroisau provide Penrith with one of the best spines in the NRL. The pack is young, versatile, and still improving. Out wide, Penrith boast some exciting young talent only just starting to touch the surface of their potential.
It all ended in disappointment last season, but the 2020 campaign acts as a stepping stone to bigger and better things that will come sooner rather than later.
Predicted Profile
What will the Penrith Panthers look like and how will they play? We take a stab at profiling their playing style ahead of Round 1.
In hindsight, we should have seen Penrith’s 2020 coming sooner than we did. Ivan Cleary’s style of play is perfect for how the game is trending.
Rugby League Eye Test has pulled together some excellent numbers to tell us this: Cleary coached sides have been at the bottom of the list in one-pass run percentage since 2017. Things went about as planned in 2020 with Justin Holbrook and the Titans the only side to fall below Penrith’s 40.8%.
Whether or not Cleary fell into this style of play and landed in a Grand Final by accident or not, we expect to see more of the same in 2021. Nathan Cleary will continue to lead all non-hookers in touches per game. His tempo with the ball and ability to pass players into areas of the field rather than point will be a mainstay of Penrith’s plan in attack. So too is the ball-playing by big bodies in James Fisher-Harris, Isaah Yeo and Kurt Capewell.
While they’ve lost a handful of experienced players in the middle, Moses Leota’s electric feet offer another point of difference. Spencer Leniu looks set to take a leap in his career too.
There is little reason to suggest the left edge isn’t just as potent this season either. Perhaps even more dangerous with Brian To’o installed on the left wing.
Coaches are always looking for ways to improve and keep up with the game. It is what makes Craig Bellamy, in particular, such a good coach. Cleary will be aiming to do the same this year. However, it’s unlikely that he moves very far away from this winning formula unless he needs to in 2021.
2021 NRL Notepad
Jason Oliver cracks open his notepad to find a key player, style or stat to keep an eye on this season.
The Penrith Panthers secured Stephen Crichton until the end of 2023 with a rich contract extension over the summer. He’s a massive part of their future plans, and it’s safe to assume that they see him being more than a centre at his peak. Specialist centres are slowly returning to the game. Crichton fits the mould right now. However, he has all of the skills of an elite fullback, and it’s something Penrith could use better even while he wears a #4 jersey.
We highlighted this play after Round 11. It’s a little bit clunky and doesn’t produce the goods on this occasion, but it has the potential to threaten.
Crichton pops up on the right side of the field out the back of shape. The mistiming of it all stymies the shift, but the Panthers have a four on three advantage when Crichton has the ball. They’re just too cramped and flat to use it.
Players aren’t being pigeonholed into one segment of the field any longer. Cody Walker at the Rabbitohs is a prime example of how much damage a left-side player can do when popping up on the right or vice-versa.
Given his skillset and ability to fill a fullback-like role when called upon down the right side, it’s something I’d like to see Penrith try more often in 2021.
“Heads In” 2021
Oscar Pannifex unpacks a scrum of three key questions ahead of the 2021 NRL season.
Centre-Field Scrum – What’s centre-frame in the Rugby League lens this season?
Penrith absolutely dominated through the middle third of the field last season. They ranked first in total run metres, racking up an incredible 2,000 metres more than the second-placed Rabbitohs. The Panthers’ post-contact metres (15,005m) was also the best in the competition, as were their 726 tackle breaks. Penrith were nothing short of destructive in 2020.
🔥 Benchwarmers 🔥
— Oscar Pannifex (@OscarPannifex) September 7, 2020
Zane Tetevano and Spencer Leniu bringing the heat from the bench in #nrlbroncospanthers
Runs: 30
Meters: 349
Post-contact meters: 160
Tackle busts: 5#NRL #randomstats
James Fisher-Harris, James Tamou and Isaah Yeo consistently laid a platform to begin the game while interchange forwards Zane Tetevano, Moses Leota and Spencer Leniu maintained the rage from the bench. The Panthers lost none of their go-forward when the starting middles came for a spell, and as a result, Api Koroisau, Jarome Luai, Nathan Cleary and Dylan Edwards ran riot. Taking nothing away from the attacking form of these men in 2020, but their job was made far easier playing behind a winning forward pack every week. With Tamou and Tetevano now gone, responsibility will likely fall on Leota to fill those minutes in the starting side.
He started just twice last year in Rounds 17 & 19 but still played roughly the same amount of minutes as he usually does off the bench – something we will be looking out for in 2021. Returning for a 15-minute stint late in the game in Round 17, Leota’s barnstorming run (above) was the catalyst for Brian To’o crossing in the corner on the following play.
Penrith won’t have the luxury of bringing fresh, starting-calibre middles into the game when opposition defenders are tiring as they did throughout almost all of 2020. Their pack also barely suffered an injury between them last season – a feat almost unheard of in the NRL. But they can still be as effective this time around with a few changes.
Luke Capewell has earned a starting edge spot meaning Liam Martin reverts to the bench as a middle option. New recruit Matt Eisenhuth also provides some cover. But rather than have two or three big minute forwards in Penrith’s pack in 2021, we might see the Panther’s big boppers share the load a little more this season. The idea of using Fisher-Harris, Leota, Leniu and Martin in high-energy bursts through the middle is an appealing one.
How Ivan Cleary rotates his forward pack is on my watch-list for the opening few rounds of the competition.
Right Scrum-Line – Who is feeling the pressure this season?
If the Panthers had a great season in 2020, then boom rookie Stephen Crichton had a sensational one.
The 20-year-old outside back scored two tries in two games off the bench to begin the year before establishing himself as arguably the best centre in the game by season’s end.
Crichton’s presence on Penrith’s left edge – alongside Villiame Kikau and Luai – was key to Penrith scoring 50% of their tries down that side of the field in 2020 as per Stats Insider. As dangerous running the ball as he is an aerial threat Crichton is still sure to be an integral part of Penrith’s attack in 2021, but the pressure will be on as opposition teams endeavour to shut him out of games.
Brian To’o switching to the left wing gives us some clues as to how Crichton mixes things up this year to maintain his offensive influence on games. Of course, the simple answer is that Penrith wants their strongest winger on their strongest attacking side. To’o is an exciting wing prospect for the Panthers and one they will want to get the most out of in 2021.
And that might be where Crichton comes in.
Where the plan last year was simply getting the ball to Crichton early and in space, having a specialist finisher outside him suggests we might see Crichton in a distribution-type role more often in 2021. Per Fox Sports Lab, Crichton had just two try assists in 22 games last season while crossing for 17 himself. We haven’t seen much of him ball-playing yet, but considering the skills he’s shown so far, you’d back him in to get the job done.
His physical presence and running threat was enough to get himself over the line more often than not in 2020. It should be more than enough to draw in opposition wingers before passing to his own in 2021. To’o had eight tries in 16 games last season, and playing outside Crichton this year could see him improve on that strike rate.
Left Scrum-Line – My left-field thought for the season
The Panthers aren’t short of big, headline-grabbing names across their lineup in 2021.
While the likes of Cleary, Crichton, Koroisau and Kikau demand attention and pressure each week, Penrith fullback Dylan Edwards classily goes about his work to be one of the most underrated number one’s in the competition.
🔥 Dylan Edwards 2020 Form 🔥
— Oscar Pannifex (@OscarPannifex) July 23, 2020
Games: 5
Tries: 3
Try Assists: 4
Try Saves: 1
Tackle Breaks: 30
Avg Run Meters: 150#NRL #PantherPride #randomstats
I tweeted this in Round 11 last season, five games since Edwards had returned from an Achilles injury and five games into what ended up being a 17-game winning streak for the Panthers. Coincidence or not, Penrith didn’t lose a game with Edwards on the field until they met the Storm on Grand Final night. He was a massive part of their premiership push and yet still manages to fly so far under the radar.
NRL.com has James Tedesco (231.7m) and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (220.8m) not surprisingly sitting atop the average run metres rankings from last season, with Jason Taumalolo (207.5m) coming in at third. Another superstar fullback in Ryan Papenhuyzen (194.3m) also features in the top five. Above him – ranked fourth in the competition for average run metres per game – is Edwards with 194.5m.
Add an average of 5.8 tackle breaks per game (5th most in the NRL) to his tireless support play (ranked 15th in the NRL) and Edwards is arguably an elite-tier fullback – statistically speaking at least.
Edwards’ catch-and-release to Charlie Staines in the corner that fateful afternoon in Round 9 is as good as any sleight-of-hand Latrell Mitchell has produced for the Bunnies since switching to fullback. He has excellent positional play out the back and can take the dirty carries early in a set just as effectively as he can add polish to the end of them.
His combination with Cleary has the potential to be one of the most potent offensive halfback-fullback pairings in the competition, and it won’t be long before Edwards is getting the credit he deserves.
Peak, Pass, Pit
Oscar and Jason give their predicted peak for the Panthers in 2021 along with a pass mark and worst-case scenario.
Peak
Grand Final: Penrith were painfully close last season, and although they would need things to again go in their favour, they are a solid chance of lifting the trophy in 2021. Their 1-17 is still one of the best in the competition and if the likes of Crichton and Luai can kick-on from breakout seasons in 2020 the Panthers should play deep into the finals again this year. ~OP
Premiership: The Panthers proved last year that they’re capable of reaching the Grand Final. Play it again this week, and they wouldn’t allow the Storm to fly out in front again. However, a lot went right for the Panthers last season. It all needs to go right again if they’re to life the Provan-Summons Trophy. ~JO
Pass
Top 4: There is no way Penrith are blessed with an injury-count like the one they were dealt in 2020. Their 17-game winning streak was testament to a well drilled and in-form footy team – but also one that didn’t have to navigate injuries to key players all that often throughout the season. Top four is a realistic pass mark for the Panthers in 2021 as they attempt to establish themselves as a top-tier NRL team in today’s game. ~OP
Top 5: Early preseason predictions suggest five teams are head and shoulders above the rest – Panthers being one of them. It doesn’t matter the order. So long as they’re among the group of top teams shuffling around the pointy end of the NRL ladder, Penrith can call the regular season a success. From there, a strong Week 2 performance, while it would be disappointing, is a reluctant pass mark. ~JO
Pit
6th-8th: Too much would have to go wrong for the Panthers to miss the eight this season, for mine. Their squad is admittedly young and inconsistency may play a larger part in Penriths’ season in 2021, but not enough to derail what looks like a top four side again this year. That being said Penrith’s depth at fullback and hooker isn’t great, and if Edwards or Koroisau go down for an extended period, the Panthers could find themselves playing sudden death football in Week 1 of the finals. ~OP
6th-7th: It’s difficult to quantify and hard for some people to accept, but luck is a thing in rugby league. Penrith had plenty of it in 2020. It felt like everything went right for the Panthers at the right time but they ended up in front of the most successful club of the last decade on Grand Final Day. Assuming the injury luck starts to run out and they’re forced to juggle mid-season Origin, the Panthers could drop a few spots on the ladder. They’re too good to drop out of the Top 8, though. ~JO
*All stats and video from NRL.com unless stated otherwise