NRL 2021: Parramatta Eels Season Preview

Parramatta Eels

We saw the best and the worst of the Parramatta Eels last year leaving us with more questions than answers heading into the 2021 NRL season.


2020 Wrap

A quickfire start to the 2020 NRL season had the Parramatta Eels flying high after 10 rounds. Their left edge attack dominated every defence put in front of it to play a major part in Parramatta’s 22.8 points per game. Conceding just 11.8 points per game, they laid claim to the best defence in the competition. Then it all changed for the blue and gold.

The left edge lost its punch. After scoring 22 tries down the left edge up to Round 12, the Eels managed just nine throughout the ten matches that followed. While conceding 17 points per game over the second half of the season is impressive, the 16.4 points scored per game put an end to their premiership dreams. The key to the upcoming season is consistency and bottling the first ten rounds of 2020.

Despite the disappointing finish, Dylan Brown, Junior Paulo, Ryan Matterson and Clint Gutherson all played out impressive seasons overall. It leaves Parramatta with a handful of elite in-form players ready to lead the charge in 2021. 

Predicted Profile

What will the Parramatta Eels look like and how will they play? We take a stab at profiling their playing style ahead of Round 1.

It’s difficult to get a read on how Parramatta might plan their attack.

They dominated the left side early in the season before the points dried up. From there, they extended their search for points down the edges more frequently rather than doing what had worked and moving up the field through the middle. We covered one particular set in Round 16 last season, highlighting how one-dimensional they had become to an opposition defence.

The set bears repeating here. Not as a prediction or a sign of things to come, but something to look out for early in the season. Ideally, we don’t see anything like it.

Parramatta search down the right side following two one-out hitups off the ruck; Souths have little issue with shutting it down.

Nathan Brown gets an offload away on the return shift, but Moses, Campbell-Gillard and Brown all fail to take a step forward before releasing the ball wide. Lane takes a couple of steps forward, but getting the ball wide seems to be so far forward in his mind that the 110kg and 198cm backrower doesn’t even consider the size advantage he has over the defender in front of him – 85kg and 173cm, Adam Reynolds. 

While Michael Jennings found some yardage down the left edge, another lateral shift to the right side leaves Parramatta the same distance from the goal line a tackle later. 

Moses’ grubber – again back to the other side of the field – doesn’t threaten the Rabbitohs defence.

That’s the Eels at their worst. Thankfully, it’s not something that spanned over 20 rounds. It is however, a glaring example of what can happen when the well runs dry – in this case, the left edge.

Moses and Brown have swapped sides for 2021. How that changes the attack in good ball remains to be seen. Although, it’s difficult to imagine their roles within the side changing too much. What is most important is how Parramatta moves up the field. Their pack is big, strong and capable of winning the yardage battle every week, just as they did throughout the first half of last season. That should still be a focus moving forward given the players they have retained and added over the offseason.

We saw the best and the worst of the Eels in 2020. At their best (shrinking the defence in the middle up the field before hitting the edges in shape in good ball), they can sniff around the top of the ladder and be talked about alongside the Storm, Rabbitohs and Roosters. It’s important that they recapture their form with the ball early into 2021 and find new ways to keep the scoreboard ticking over throughout the season.

Reading ahead, the ups and downs of 2020 have left us with a lot more questions than answers for 2021. Parramatta looks like a team we will touch on a lot here at RLW throughout the year.

2021 NRL Notepad

Jason Oliver cracks open his notepad to find a key player, style or stat to keep an eye on this season.

Junior Paulo

This portion of the prior season previews has been dedicated to intrigue, curiosity, and in some cases, serious doubts. But this time, it’s all about being a Junior Paulo fanboy.

He’s what I consider to be the perfect modern-day prop. A mountain of a man at 188 cm and 123 kg, Paulo is imposing as a ball-carrier. Defending players don’t want to stand in front of him. When they do, it’s a struggle to get him to the ground. His hit and spin close to the line caused havoc in 2020.

Perhaps Paulo’s freakish talent as a ball-player contributed to Parramatta’s over-attraction to shift the ball? Long-time readers, you may have seen this vision a few times before, but why wouldn’t you utilise a wrecking ball that can engage the line and move the ball like this?

He catches a dodgy pass and straightens off his left foot to engage Jamil Hopoate. Shaun Lane runs an excellent line to draw Brodie Croft into the action, and a gaping hole opens up for Clint Gutherson. Paulo feeds him. Love. To. See. It.

Paulo’s 155 running metres per game last season marks a career-high. Don’t be surprised to see him add to that number in 2021. The NRL’s desperation to keep the ball in play is leading to more ‘stuff’ happening every game. Paulo has the motor to add to his already impressive output under the new rules.

The Eels need to move their way up the field first and provide their attacking players with as many opportunities in good ball as possible. From there, they can start to utilise Paulo’s impressive skillset to move the ball while either standing in the tackle or shifting the ball on the move. He finished up with five try assists last season. I’ll tip a career-high in that department this season, too.

“Heads In” 2021

Oscar Pannifex unpacks a scrum of three key questions ahead of the 2021 NRL season.

Centre-Field Scrum – What’s centre-frame in the Rugby League lens this season?

Parramatta’s metre-eating, ball-playing forward pack will again be regarded as one of the best in the business in 2021.  Per Fox Sports Lab, the Eels’ big boppers averaged the second-most run metres per game in 2020, and we’re expecting more of the same this season. They also threw the most offloads (13.3/game) and ranked highly (6th) in general-play passes too. Brad Arthur has assembled a big, powerful pack that is more than capable of moving the ball across the park. 

A few other stats stand out, though, and for the wrong reasons. Although they were prolific movers of the ball, Parramatta weren’t engaging the line as well as other teams near them on the competition ladder. Let’s compare them with the Sydney Roosters, for example. 

Fox Sports Lab 2020 stats (avg)Finishing positionRun metresOne pass hit-upsGeneral play passesLine engagementsPoints
Parramatta Eels3rd159888.49925.620
Sydney Roosters4th153182.996.932.527.2

Both packs went about their work in a similar manner last season, and for the most part, achieved similar results. Both averaged roughly the same metres per game and did so with almost exactly the same mix of direct hit-ups and shifts of the ball. 

But the key difference was the Roosters’ extra 6.9 line engagements and subsequent +7.2 points per game when compared to Parramatta. We called the Eels out last year for shifting the ball just for the sake of it last season, and now the proof is in the numbers. Too often, Parramatta shifted the ball across-field without squaring up defenders or engaging defensive lines, and as a result, those shifting movements often failed to find points. 

A simpler approach to their footy might be key for Parramatta in 2021.

As much as we love watching big Junior Paulo ball-play at the line like a silky half, any forward pack featuring him, Reagan Campbell-Gillard, Nathan Brown, Shaun Lane and Ryan Matterson must be thinking run first, pass second. Defensive lines will be forced to compress if Parra’s pack can get a roll on. The likes of Gutherson, Moses and Brown should be able to finish things off from there. 

Right Scrum-Line – Who is feeling the pressure this season? 

Jase covered it earlier in the preseason, and we still have our doubts about Parramatta’s centre stocks heading into 2021. 

The suspension of a rejuvenated (and now we might know why) Michael Jennings has left Brad Arthur skinny on centre-three-quarters, and in an era when we have become suddenly flushed with young outside-back talent – think Stephen Crichton, Bradman Best or Kotoni Staggs – the Eels’ centre combination of Tom Opacic and Waqa Blake hardly turns heads. 

After 43 games across four years and two clubs, Opacic’s reputation as a fringe first-grader has unwillingly developed. He has shown flashes of brilliance in stints at the Cowboys and Broncos, but not enough to lock down a position in either team. He gets a good chance to show us what he’s capable of in 2021 with Michael Oldfield the only other real option for coach Brad Arthur to begin the season. Opacic won’t be able to emulate Jennings’ electric running game, but if he can run convincing lead lines as Gutherson sweeps out the back or be a reliable link man with the ball en route to Sivo, Opacic can play a role in this team. 

It’s Waqa Blake that worries me more. 

As rocks or diamonds as they come, Blake lit up our screens with some ridiculous individual efforts in attack last season. He’s a wonderfully talented athlete with all the offensive attributes of a gun attacking centre. But – and you knew the but was coming – Blake also produced plenty of poor defensive efforts last season, including this one (above) against his new teammate in 2021. 

Statistically (per Fox Sports Lab), Blake was arguably the worst defensive centre in the NRL last year. His 56 missed tackles was the most by any player in his position, and he conceded the second most line breaks (21) by full-time centres in 2020. 

As part of a positional switch this season (more on that below), Blake looks set to line up next to Dylan Brown on Parra’s leaky right edge. Brown is a better defender than Moses and might help plug some of the holes, but Blake’s own defensive issues must be addressed quickly for the Eels to be a chance in 2021. If form slumps or injuries force Arthur’s hand in the outside backs, his options are extremely limited.

Left Scrum-Line – My left-field thought for the season

Reports surfaced over the offseason that Brad Arthur has made a prominent – if not perplexing – change to his team’s makeup for 2021. Left side duo Dylan Brown and Shaun Lane will do a straight swap with Mitch Moses and Ryan Matterson on the other side of the field. 

Okay…

There was a lot to like about Brown’s 2020 season on Parramatta’s left edge. He developed a nice combination with Lane, in particular running off his hip. Brown put his rangy backrower into plenty of half gaps, which often saw Lane offload to a man in support. While only credited for 5 try assists and 3 line break assists, in reality, Brown’s influence was often key to Jennings and Maika Sivo crossing for 22 tries between them last season. 

There’s no reason Brown and Lane can’t emulate this on the other side of the park in 2021. There’s also no reason –  that we can think of – for them to even be moved in the first place.

Putting Moses – a right-foot kicker – on the left edge means he will have markers charging at him from the inside when kicking off his right foot. Why put more kick pressure on Moses despite him doing almost all of Parramatta’s kicking last season? Maybe Brown will take on more responsibility in that department this year. 

There is admittedly some logic in having Moses and Matterson on the same side as the Eels’ top try scorer in 2020. Maika Sivo is an obvious target on the end of backline shifts for Parramatta, and Matterson’s presence on the left edge suggests the Eels might use his ball-playing as another way to get the ball to Sivo in the corner. With Moses expected to command most of the attack again in 2021, having him link up with the destructive Fijian winger more often has its merits too.

Peak, Pass, Pit

Oscar and Jason give their predicted peak for the Eels in 2021 along with a pass mark and worst-case scenario.

Peak

Top 4: The Eels have retained most of their talent following a 3rd place finish last season. Their pack is one of the strongest and skilful in the competition and if Moses, Brown and Gutherson stay fit and in form, Parramatta could again find themselves with a double-shot in this year’s finals series. ~OP

4th: Five teams stand out from the pack heading into the 2021 season. Like last year, a strong run of results could see the Eels breakup those five teams, leaping one of them into 4th. Consistency is the key if they’re to develop the sort of game plan that can propel them into Week 3 of the finals. ~JO

Pass

Finals: Parramatta’s roster is finals quality. They have too many experienced and/or representative players to miss the top eight this season, and that is as low as their own expectations should drop. But with the top four teams widely agreed upon, the Eels will be eager to prove they’re the best of the rest and avoid a decisive logjam that threatens to form around rungs 7-10 on the competition ladder in 2021. ~OP

Top 8: This looks like one of the most competitive NRL seasons in recent years. All 16 clubs can argue for their place in the Top 8 at this time of the year, but only three or four would come as a genuine surprise if they made it. Despite finishing 3rd in 2020, landing inside the Top 8 this season is a pass mark to start. ~JO

Pit

9th or lower: I’m not saying Parra are going to miss the finals in 2021. It would be a massive drift for the Eels to slip from their 3rd place finish last season, but I am not going to rule it out entirely. Their depth is arguably the worst of last year’s top eight teams, particularly in the outside backs and playmaking positions. Without a reliable contingency plan, Parramatta could find themselves in serious trouble if Moses or Gutherson go down for an extended period. ~OP

9th-10th: Parramatta were on the good side of the injury gods last season. They played with their first-choice pack for the most part while their spine players remained relatively healthy. Things could turn sour if injuries hit in 2021. An average of 3.2 teams move in and out of the Top 8 every year, and the Eels are at risk of being one of them. ~JO

*All stats and video from NRL.com unless stated otherwise


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