The North Queensland Cowboys are ushering in a new era and Todd Payten has been tasked with leading the way heading into the 2021 NRL season.
2020 Wrap
The North Queensland Cowboys started the 2020 NRL season with Paul Green at the helm, but three wins after Round 10 triggered his sacking after almost seven years in the coaches box.
A turnstile defence and inconsistent attack ruled out an extended run at the Top 8 despite winning two of their first three games. The Cows never got closer than four competition points behind 8th on the ladder across the second half of the season.
Jason Taumalolo continued to dominate the middle forward position even with the way #13’s are starting to be used across the game. His 207.5 running metres per game was a career-high, the third-most in the NRL & most of any forward by almost 30 metres. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow announced his arrival to first-grade with a handful of encouraging performances while Reuben Cotter and Reece Robson restored faith in North Queensland’s future at the hooker position. Francis Molo set himself up to take a leap in 2021, too.
Back-to-back 14th-place finishes and just five wins in a 20-game season last year doesn’t inspire a lot of faith moving forward. Todd Payten has a lot to do if he’s to improve their 15th-ranked defence. But there is enough talent in key positions and in the coaches box to be hopeful heading into 2021.
Predicted Profile
What will the North Queensland Cowboys look like and how will they play? We take a stab at profiling their playing style ahead of Round 1.
Todd Payten did some wonderful things with the Warriors in 2020. However, he never had them attacking in full-flight. He’s now taking over a side that has been stuck in the dark ages of rugby league attacking structures, and those structures are likely to linger early into 2021.
North Queensland play with a traditional pack. They have the metre-eating middles and line-running edges. As the game moves towards mobility and ball-movement, the Cowboys are lagging behind in terms of personnel. Still, they have the best forward in rugby league to work with in Jason Taumalolo.
http://gty.im/1266401705Payten’s mention of playing Taumalolo fewer minutes will no doubt leave some Cowboys fans with questions. But less could well mean more for the hulking Tongan. Especially with the news that he will spend some moments of the match on the edges. In a similar way to how the Storm float Nelson Asofa-Solomona or the Panthers play James Fisher-Harris a little bit wider, the Cowboys can open up more space for Taumalolo with the ball in his hands. It won’t be all of the time and they will more than likely plan specific moments to send Taumalolo a little bit wider. Mitchell Dunn shapes as a possible link-man in the middle when the Cowboys run these sets. It’s an exciting change to what has been a stale Cowboys attack in recent years.
So too is a healthy Michael Morgan joining Valentine Holmes and Scott Drinkwater in what looks like a run-heavy spine depending on how the team lines up. The Cowboys are effectively running three fullbacks (possibly four in Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow). It promotes the idea of generating regular second-phase to make the most of the trio’s skillset in backing up the ball and creating chances for others with their feet.
What we do know is there won’t be such a reliance on old-school block plays in 2020. It’s not going to happen overnight, but the Cowboys attack looks like it will finally change for the better.
2021 NRL Notepad
Jason Oliver cracks open his notepad to find a key player, style or stat to keep an eye on this season.
Cowboys Attack: Who & How
The North Queensland attack, and how they approach it, is one of my major focuses this season. I have Payten down as an elite coach in the not-too-distant future, and turning around an attack that has been left to fall behind the rest of the game is a significant challenge first up. He has an interesting mix of players to work with. The sort that could inspire changes few other clubs can emulate.
But while their structures and approach to the game with the ball in-hand is key to improving on their 14th-placed finish in 2020, locking down a back-five is Payten’s first job. The back five has changed 32 times in their last 44 games.
It’s impossible to develop cohesion in attack or defence with players turning over that regularly. We saw how the turnover in centres and wingers impacted North Queensland’s edge defence. The lack of familiarity with the ball led to a cross-field kick in search of Kyle Feldt as their most reliable attacking play.
The pressure is on Payten to identify his best back-five early and put them in a position to play beside each other for an extended period. He will then pray to the injury gods for some luck from there.
“Heads In” 2021
Oscar Pannifex unpacks a scrum of three key questions ahead of the 2021 NRL season.
Centre-Field Scrum – What’s centre-frame in the Rugby League lens this season?
North Queensland struggled through the 2020 season without ever really knowing what their first-choice 17 really looked like.
Key signings simmered along without really catching alight while the Jonathan Thurston-era attacking structures weren’t anywhere near as successful without Thurston himself guiding the ball across the park. Incoming coach Todd Payten has been tasked with solving all these problems and more, including the key decision of selecting the Cowboys’ first-choice fullback for 2021.
Scott Drinkwater, Valentine Holmes and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow present three genuine options in the #1 jersey this season, and we still don’t feel any closer to establishing a pecking order.
Drinkwater is by far and away the best ball-player of the trio. Per Fox Sports Lab, Drinkwaters’ average 1.2 try assists per game ranked him second in the NRL in 2020. The skills he displayed in the #6 jumper would make for a comfortable transition into a ball-playing fullback role outside Michael Morgan. Playing Drinkwater at the back also helps minimise his defensive woes – an average 3.5 missed tackles per game is far less relevant when you’re not defending in the line.
Holmes and Tabuai-Fidow both offer a dynamic running game and finishing ability out wide should Payten decide to keep Drinkwater in the halves.
It’s fair to say Holmes hasn’t lived up to the hype since his return from the NFL. His 121 running metres per game in 2020 was Holmes’ lowest since his debut season on the wing in 2014, while his nine tries and four try assists from 12 games is an acceptable if not underwhelming return. But it was Holmes’ meagre six line-breaks at fullback last year that worries me most.
In his last year in the NRL before leaving for America, Holmes had 26 line-breaks for the Sharks and after being signed on that kind of form, North Queensland are still waiting for a return on investment. Holmes’ low haul in 2020 suggests he was a yard off the pace in terms of match fitness and his feel for the game after being out for 12 months, and his first try back in the NRL probably summed it up best.
Getting the ball out the back from Drinkwater, Holmes runs dead straight and at a 45 degree angle to the line rather than sweeping behind his lead runner and straightening up in a traditional ‘jockey’ movement. He doesn’t look for a second like passing to Ben Hampton on the wing and only just falls over the line with a defender around his legs when Jesse Arthurs fails to make good first-contact up high. Holmes couldn’t have made this look any more difficult – and he certainly wouldn’t have scored against a Roosters or a Storm – but his natural talent was enough to get him over the line. In reality, there were a few things he could’ve done better.
Holmes was always going to take time adjusting to play fullback in the NRL again. Even more so considering the recent rule changes. But with ‘The Hammer’ waiting in the wings – literally – Holmes only has so long to cement that spot before he finds himself on the paint as an elite-tier and very overpaid winger.
Goodluck, Todd Payten.
Right Scrum-Line – Who is feeling the pressure this season?
Todd Payten arrives in North Queensland with plenty of esteem following his heroics at the helm of the embattled New Zealand Warriors last season. Whatever he did brought the best out of a side with countless excuses to throw the towel in, and Cowboys’ fans will be hoping he can do the same in 2021.
Looking at his coaching credentials, it’s a wonder Payten surprised anyone with his impressive run during the back end of last year.
He won a Grand Final in his first professional coaching gig with the Wests Tigers NYC team in 2012. A year later, he won a junior State of Origin series in his representative coaching debut for the U18’s NSW team. And then in 2015 – his first year as an NRL assistant coach – he won a historic Grand Final victory over the Broncos to win the Premiership.
Not a bad resume.
The Cowboys are arguably in a rebuilding period, but that is not to say Payten isn’t inheriting a quality roster. The likes of Michael Morgan, Coen Hess, Jordan McLean and Esan Marsters have been far from their peak in recent years and if Payten can get them firing, this Cowboys squad could push for an unlikely finals appearance in 2021. A key area they all must improve on however, is their defence.
The Cowboys conceded 121 line-breaks last season – the second most by any team across the competition. Their defensive systems weren’t working and too many individuals were slipping off tackles as a result. As per Fox Sports Lab, Josh McGuire’s 14 line-breaks caused were the second-most among lock-forwards last season and Coen Hess (13) was the third worst offender among back-rowers. Out wider, none of Jake Clifford, Scott Drinkwater, Esan Marsters, Justin O’Neill, Valentine Holmes, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow or Kyle Feldt had a tackle-efficiency above 80%.
That’s North Queensland’s entire backline…
Individually and collectively, the Cowboys’ defense simply has to improve under Payten in 2021. He did it with New Zealand last year – the Warriors won 5 of their last 10 games but lost the other half by an average of just 8 points – all against top eight sides no less. Compare that to an average 28.4 point losing margin from Rounds 1-7 for the Warriors before Payten took over and his influence was felt.
We know the Cows will score some points in 2021. It’s how they defend their line that will be the difference between a rebuilding season or a surprising one.
Left Scrum-Line – My left-field thought for the season
Daejarn Asi has six first-grade games to his name following a debut 2020 season, and I’m expecting him to add to that tally in 2021.
With the Cowboys already struggling to fit multiple players into two halves positions, Asi may be forced to bide his time for a #6 or #7 jersey. But the Cowboys’ centre-three-quarter stocks aren’t particularly strong and I won’t be surprised to see Asi replace Justin O’Neill or Esan Marsters in the centres by seasons’ end.
Listed at 186cm and 97kgs and still only 20 years of age, Asi certainly has the size and talent to play in the centres. His individual effort (above) to crank off the left foot against the Panthers in Round 10 wouldn’t look out of place down the left scrum-line if Asi had been playing out wider. He also has the skills of a half that could create opportunities for himself or those outside him – if only they can ground the ball…
He’s still very much in rookie territory, but it’s not out of the question for Asi to become a prominent feature of North Queenslands’ backline in 2021.
Peak, Pass, Pit
Oscar and Jason give their predicted peak for the Cowboys in 2021 along with a pass mark and worst-case scenario.
Peak
8th: I didn’t have them anywhere near 8th place before writing this preview, but there is plenty of upside to the Cowboys in 2021 if you dig a little deeper. The roster boasts established names that should be playing finals football, and new coach Todd Payten is looking more and more like the man to bring North Queensland out of their Thurston-era hangover. If a few other things go their way, the Cowboys might just find themselves playing finals footy this season. ~OP
Top 8: I purchased all of the Todd Payten shares I could halfway through last season and expect to see them balloon in value in the not-too-distant future. Could it be 2021? Even with the holes in the squad, there is a lot to like about the Cowboys this year. Talent hasn’t been the issue over the last two years; injuries and getting the best out of the talent has. Payten can’t do much about potential injuries, but he can get enough out of this group to play finals footy. ~JO
Pass
9th-11th: After finishing 14th last season, the Cowboys must be expecting improvement heading into 2021. Holmes will have another NRL preseason under his belt, Clifford, Drinkwater and Tabuai-Fidow are another year wiser and importantly they have Todd Payten to set the example. The top half of the bottom-eight seems a pass mark for North Queensland this year. ~OP
9th-11th: While they’re my favourite Top 8 smokey, an improvement in defence and a slight rise up the ladder is the more likely scenario in 2021. North Queensland don’t need to set the world on fire to call this year a success. Conceding fewer points and developing this new-look attack will put them in a promising position heading into 2022. ~JO
Pit
12th: The Cowboys can’t afford to go backwards in 2021. Their roster is too good to warrant a bottom four finish and I can’t see Payten letting this team end up anymore than a few rungs outside the eight. Finals might still be a year or two away, but North Queensland should be safely clear of the bottom rungs of the ladder this season. ~OP
13th: The Cowboys can’t do worse this season. I have too much faith in Payten after what he did with the Warriors last year to even consider a drop down the ladder. Jumping up one spot is as bad as it can possibly get. ~JO
*All stats and video from NRL.com unless stated otherwise