The Manly Warringah Sea Eagles head into the 2021 NRL season as a bottom eight side despite boasting Top 8 quality in key positions.
2020 Wrap
The 2020 NRL season made two things very clear for the Manly Warringah Sea Eagles:
- Tom Trbojevic is one of the best fullbacks in the game and the chassis to Manly’s attack.
- Manly isn’t very good when playing without one of the best fullbacks in the game and the chassis to their attack.
Tom Trbojevic was limited to just seven games in 2020 and played a part in four wins. However, his side could only muster three wins across the 13 games without him to finish a lowly 13th on the ladder after Round 20. It’s not close to their 5th-placed effort in 2019 and short of what most assumed would be a place in the Top 8 at worst.
Something must be in the water at Brookvale or they’re not drinking enough of it. Injuries have defined their last two seasons, and threaten to do so again with Trbojevic already ruled out to start the 2021 season.
Curtis Sironen and Cade Cust both stood out with their performances but also failed to stay on the field. Taniela Paseka offered a rare glimpse of what an in-form player featuring on the team sheet almost every week looks like. But if not for the quality of Daly Cherry-Evans in the halves, Manly could have found themselves in the wooden spoon conversation.
The 2020 season is one Des Hasler and the Sea Eagles will be eager to forget.
Predicted Profile
What will the Manly Warringah Sea Eagles look like and how will they play? We take a stab at profiling their playing style ahead of Round 1.
So much depends on Tom Trbojevic and his fitness. We’ve heard it all before but there is no other way to put it: Manly is a different team with him on the field.
He doesn’t need to be touching the ball to have an influence on the attack. Dylan Walker and Moses Suli pose as strong options in attack outside and Trbojevic’s presence helps to take attention away from them. Likewise, Trbojevic is given a little bit more space out the back of shape when a strong ball-carrier is running the lead line in front of him. Without their fullback, defences are able to steer in on Daly Cherry-Evans and the options directly around him.
Where Manly can make up ground in Trbojevic’s absence is through the middle. While they’ve lost Addin Fonua-Blake to the Warriors, a Marty Taupau, Josh Aloiai and Taniela Paseka trio is an excellent place to start. Paseka, in particular, is primed for a big year after stringing together a number of positive performances last season.
Playing the power game through the middle before Cherry-Evans and Kieran Foran complete quick shifts to provide their ball-carriers on the edges with early ball is where it needs to begin for Manly.
Regardless of how his body is holding up at the time, Foran will dig into the line and open things up for his backrower. Cherry-Evans searching for Jason Saab in the air is sure to be a feature of Manly’s attack in good ball areas too.
There is no doubt that Manly score points a lot differently with Tom Trbojevic wearing the #1 jersey. The key this season is finding ways to make up the difference when he inevitably spends time on the sideline.
| With Trbojevic | Without Trbojevic | |
| Wins | 14 | 3 |
| Losses | 8 | 21 |
| Points per 80 min | 22.6 | 18.7 |
2021 NRL Notepad
Jason Oliver cracks open his notepad to find a key player, style or stat to keep an eye on this season.
Taniela Paseka
The Sea Eagles need to find some production in the middle to make up for the loss of Addin Fonua-Blake. Josh Aloiai has come in as his official replacement, but it’s Taniela Paseka that I think will make up the difference.
The 23-year-old has always had the potential to produce in first-grade. How could he not when standing at 197cm tall and a massive 120kg?
Paseka is a giant of a man, and in 2020, started to throw his weight around. He averaged 104 metres per game in predominantly a bench role. Encouragingly, he didn’t become a passenger when Des Hasler increased his minutes. Paseka had never played more than 40 minutes in an NRL match before the 2020 season. He then cracked the number six times.
Round 14 is when he really stood out in what was a disappointing Manly pack for most of the season.
His combination with Jake Trbojevic in the middle is a possible source of points moving forward. So too is the option to send Paseka a little bit wider, much like the Cowboys plan to do with Taumalolo.
In a side that finished the 2020 NRL season fourth in offloads with 10.3 per game, a bump in Paseka’s minutes should see that number rise in 2021. A lone defender’s only option is to cut off his legs. With his arms free and what appears to be a license to throw the ball, Paseka will have teammates sniffing around him every time he takes on the line.
Aloiai is an excellent addition for Manly. He has a good motor, and while he won’t be quite as destructive as Fonua-Blake, Aloiai is a similarly consistent performer. It’s Paseka I want to see running rampant as the player destabilizing the defensive line with destructive carries.
This looks like the year Paseka starts living up to the potential.
“Heads In” 2021
Oscar Pannifex unpacks a scrum of three key questions ahead of the 2021 NRL season.
Centre-Field Scrum – What’s centre-frame in the Rugby League lens this season?
With injury clouds lingering over the fullback position and his first-choice hooker suspended indefinitely, Des Hasler needed an established and reliable foil for star playmaker Daly Cherry-Evans in the halves, and Kieran Foran is that man.
After notching the second most receipts by a non-hooker last season, Cherry-Evans was playing under immense pressure as Manly’s sole creative attacking player while Tom Trobjevic was hamstrung on the sideline. Jake Trbojevic suffered as a result too, as the workhorse lock-forward was called upon to distribute and direct the ball rather than truck it up himself. Sure, Jake is a wonderful ball-playing forward but he is undoubtedly at his best when running the footy. Foran joining the side will not only give the Sea Eagles another genuine attacking option but also should free up both J.Trbojevic and Cherry-Evans to play more of their natural game in 2021.
Foran will line up on the left edge with Jack Gosiewski and Brad Parker his partners-in-crime for Round 1, and I’m expecting him to bring the best out of both men. Foran has excellent footy-smarts, and expertly engages the line before passing to put his players into good positions. The way Raymond Faitala-Mariner blossomed alongside Foran at the Bulldogs last season is a perfect example.
Foran takes the ball so deep into the line here that he wears a shot from John Bateman, but it was enough to get Faitala-Mariner running at two smaller defenders and subsequently win the contest.
Foran is the difference between Faitala-Mariner making almost 10 metres in the carry and winning a quick play-the-ball here or him potentially getting pushed backwards in the tackle and losing all momentum.
Closer to the line still, this play was even more effective.
Gosiewski mightn’t have Faitala-Mariners’ frame but he is a willing ball-runner and we’ll be waiting for Foran to feed him good ball in Round 1. Outside him further, Parker runs an astonishingly good line for an outside back and will be a face-ball or grubber kick option for Foran as he digs into the line down Manly’s left edge to begin the season.
Ideally for the Sea Eagles however, Tom Trobjevic returns at fullback and Dylan Walker reclaims his left-centre spot outside Foran – a move I think has massive upside heading into 2021. Walker was elite at centre for South Sydney in 2014 when they won the comp. Since then he has been crow-barred into the halves or shifted to fullback as an injury cover.
A Foran/Walker combination down Manly’s left edge could be an effective one if injuries are kind and Hasler can pick his first-choice 17 more often this season.
Right Scrum-Line – Who is feeling the pressure this season?
We usually don’t bow to the rugby league headlines, but discussions last week around Manly’s dummy-half stocks heading into 2021 were on the money with coach Des Hasler worryingly light on hookers to begin the season. Manase Fainu’s suspension has left Hasler again with make-shift dummy-halves Lachlan Croker and Cade Cust likely to share the role this year.
Croker is the safer of the two options. After 33 NRL games he has just four tries and two try-assists playing in the halves or at hooker. Croker gives quality service and is a sound defender, but with an average 25 running metres per game he has not presented as an attacking threat. That’s not to say he can’t – just that we haven’t seen it often enough to date.
He jumped out of hooker against the Cowboys to send his positional rival through the line back in Round 11 last year for his only line-break assist of the season. And to be fair, it had more to do with the Cowboys’ awful defensive efforts and Cust’s’ silky footwork than any sleight-of-hand from Croker here.
Jase and I were big fans of Cust last season.
Cade Cust’s 2020 form 😤
— Oscar Pannifex (@OscarPannifex) July 30, 2020
Games played: 5
Tries: 2
Try Assists: 1
Linebreaks: 3
Tackle Breaks: 12
Forced Dropouts: 2
When Dylan Walker comes back, where do you play him Manly fans?#NRL #manlyforever #randomstats
I posted this after a string of scintillating attacking displays in the #6 jersey had us calling for him to join Cherry-Evans in the halves and push Dylan Walker to the centres. Not only was it obvious that Manly looked more dangerous when Cust got his hands on the ball, but having Walker in the backline slightly offset the absence of Tom Trbojevic at fullback.
We haven’t seen much – if any – of Cust in the middle. There could be some issues with his defence, although an 88% tackle efficiency per Fox Sports Lab puts him just a smidge below his rival Croker (90%) in that department. What he will do better than Croker, however, is threaten out of dummy-half.
The Sea Eagles have a massive prop-rotation that will do some damage if they can play over the advantage line. They also have elite support players to back them up. But it counts for nothing if their hooker can’t engage the markers and bring them onto the ball. A Croker/Cust hooking combination won’t give Manly top-tier dummy-half service, but it can do a job. Croker can start and edge Manly into the game before Cust comes on late and terrorises tiring defenders around the ruck.
Or, Des could spring something different altogether on us in true mad-scientist fashion.
Whatever the case, I’ll be checking the #9 on Manly’s team-list first thing most weeks.
Left Scrum-Line – My left-field thought for the season
Joel Thompson and Curtis Sironen have quietly gone about their work alongside Jake Trobjevic over the past few years to forge one of the most underrated backrow combinations in the NRL.
But with Thompson and back-up Corey Wadell both gone in 2021, coach Des Hasler is suddenly precariously light on second-rowers with Jack Gosiewski or Andrew Davey the likely inclusion on Manly’s left edge to start the season. Trbojevic will always be the big name in this back-row, but this year shapes as a bit of a breakout season for Sironen on the right edge.
Sironen isn’t a stats man.
Just like Elliott Whitehead for Canberra or Felise Kaufusi for the Storm, Sironen is never going to be a player to post massive numbers on the stat sheet, but his influence on those around him is hard to quantify. Sironen runs an elite back-rowers line for Cherry-Evans on Manly’s right edge and his 60 general-play passes from 229 possessions in 2020 (per Fox Sports Lab) suggests he is capable enough with the ball in hand. There is one stat that stands out, however.
With the likes of Addin Fonua-Blake and Martin Taupau renowned for their ability to generate second-phase play, Sironen’s offload has been an under-utilised weapon for Manly in recent seasons, and is something they might look to more often in 2021. He threw 34 offloads in 2020 – the fifth most by back-rowers, competition wide.
In Cherry-Evans and Jake Trbojevic, Manly have two of the best support players in the NRL and they should both be targets for Sironen’s offload in attacking shapes this season. With question marks over Tom Trbojevic’s fitness heading into 2021, Manly need to find another way to the try-line and Sironen could turn out to be just that.
Peak, Pass, Pit
Oscar and Jason give their predicted peak for the Sea Eagles in 2021 along with a pass mark and worst-case scenario.
Peak
8th: As it’s been said so many times before – it all comes down to Tom Trbojevic. It’s a testament to his own talent that Trbojevic has such an impact on this Manly team despite the likes of Cherry-Evans and Taupau lining up for the Sea Eagles every week. If Hasler can pick his first-choice 17 most weeks, this squad is capable of playing finals footy in 2021… just. ~OP
Top 8: A crack at the Top 8 can’t be ruled out if Tom Trbojevic is healthy – he’s that good. Their attack goes to another level and their defence follows. Hasler is a good enough coach to get this group playing finals football if they can build some momentum upon Trbojevic’s return. ~JO
Pass
12th: The Manly Sea Eagles could be anything in 2021. Just as capable of sneaking into the finals as they are of ending up with the spoon, Manly are impossibly difficult to read simply because so much relies on a few players. If they get a reasonable run with injuries, a 12th place finish would be a small but acceptable improvement for the Sea Eagles who still have a number of key holes in their roster. ~OP
12th: Losing Trbojevic for any period is huge for the Sea Eagles, but his absence shouldn’t cripple the side like it has recently. They need to find ways to tread water while he’s not on the field. They’ve had enough practice…
Regardless of how many games their fullback plays in 2021, anything worse than 2020’s 13th-place finish is unacceptable. ~JO
Pit
Wooden Spoon: I don’t have them getting the spoon in 2021, but as mentioned above anything is possible for the Sea Eagles this season. If Tom Trbojevic, Foran or Sironen miss more games than they play Manly will struggle to fill the gaps this year, keeping in mind Cherry-Evans is missing during the Origin period. I predict things might get ugly around rungs 11th-16th on the NRL ladder by competition’s end in 2021 and Manly are a danger of being right in the thick of it. ~OP
14th-15th: Teams with a top-tier half shouldn’t be left holding the wooden spoon at the end of the season. Cherry-Evans, and Foran if he can stay healthy, are good enough to keep the Sea Eagles off the bottom no matter how injuries impact the rest of the squad. ~JO
*All stats and video from NRL.com unless stated otherwise