The Canberra Raiders fell one win short of back-to-back NRL Grand Final’s but are well-positioned to return to the big dance this season.
2020 Wrap
The Canberra Raiders’ impressive 2019 season put some pressure on the club to perform in 2020. For the most part, the Green Machine lived up to the billing despite a flurry of injuries to first-choice players including Josh Hodgson.
Losing to the two eventual Grand Final teams but beating 2019’s premiership winner, the Raiders put forward a strong Finals campaign with Tom Starling, George Williams and Jack Wighton carving themselves out as a dangerous trio in key play-making positions. While Ricky Stuart has lost his man in John Bateman back to Super League, Hudson Young and Corey Horsburgh announced themselves as genuine first-graders while Corey Harawira-Naera also joined the club.
Despite falling short of their efforts in 2019, the Raiders added plenty of experience to their depth players in 2020 to develop healthy competition in multiple positions throughout the current preseason.
Predicted Profile
What will the Canberra Raiders look like and how will they play? We take a stab at profiling their playing style ahead of Round 1.
The Raiders managed to navigate their way to a successful season despite a raft of injuries, but going into 2021 somewhat healthy, we’re going to get a better idea of their ideal playing style early.
They have no shortage of hard and direct ball-carriers.
Josh Papalii is one of the best in the business and he is supported by Dunamis Lui, Emre Guler, Sia Soliola, Ryan James, Hudson Young and Corey Horsburgh. That collection of players only know one direction and will win their fair share of battles in the middle this season.
Canberra’s 86.1 one-pass hit-ups per game ended up as the second-most of all 16 teams last season while only the Knights recorded a higher percentage of one-pass hit-ups per run. Expect that to continue in 2021.
In good ball, their left and right shifts offer something different.
Jack Wighton’s running game dominates the left. The five-eighth running the ball is option one after he tormented right-side defences for 13 tries, 11 line breaks and eight try assists with 43% of Canberra’s total tries coming down the left side of the field. If Wighton can’t take the line on, Elliott Whitehead provides excellent hole-running, but more importantly, underrated ball-playing. The Englishman’s ability to act as the link to the outside backs is the perfect compliment to Wighton’s run-first attacking style.
http://gty.im/1279306734It’s a more traditional setup on the right side. George Williams takes the line on often enough to be a danger with the ball, but expect to see the Raiders play with more shape on his side. Corey Harawira-Naera and Hudson Young will hit holes and offer regular decoys as a lead-runner, but they’re not going to shift the ball like Whitehead can on the other side.
Josh Hodgson is still expected to play 80 minutes despite Tom Starling’s development last season. Moving Hodgson to lock for short periods while picking and choosing when to inject Starling’s intensity out of dummy half is a dangerous card for Ricky Stuart to have up his sleeve.
With a variation of weapons across the park, the Raiders can pick holes in the opposition. They look set to be among the best attacking teams in the NRL this season.
NRL Notepad
Jason Oliver cracks open his notepad to find a key player, style or stat to keep an eye on this season.
Emre Guler
He only managed eight games in 2020 and has played just 22 first-grade games overall, but Emre Guler has the potential to be a massive part of the Raiders pack in 2021.
It’s a long time ago now, but he played a blinder in Round 1 last season. He laid the foundation for a strong year with 139 running metres on 17 carries in 45 minutes.
Active around the ball, Guler showed nice footwork to fall just short of the line here:
Guler was soon rewarded for his hunger around the ruck and received a flat pass from Josh Hodgson to expose a sliding Mitch Rein with Jarrod Walace unable to stop the Raiders prop from falling over the line.
But it’s Guler’s try assist that makes him a dangerous prospect. The best attacking teams beat the defence by moving the ball with props having an increasing influence on those actions last season. Anticipating more of the same in 2021, Guler’s ball-playing is something to keep an eye on. He puts Elliott Whitehead over the line in this one, but digging deep into the line before finding Wighton on these shifts is an exciting option.
Recently re-signed and now fit and healthy following a long layoff, Guler is in for a big year.
Heads In!
Oscar Pannifex unpacks a scrum of three key questions ahead of the 2021 NRL season.
Centre-Field Scrum – What’s centre-frame in the Rugby League lens this season?
The loss of John Bateman to UK’s Super League has left Canberra with a hole to fill in the back-row this season, and one man has already made a strong case for himself as the Raiders’ next game-breaking forward.
Joseph Tapine seemed to find a home in the number 13 jersey after seasons switching from the middle to the edge as needed, and we’ll be looking for him to take an even larger role in Canberra’s pack in 2021.
Corey Harawira-Naera and Hudson Young appear to be jostling it out for Bateman’s vacated edge role, but both men are running back-rowers who cannot replicate the creative attacking output of Bateman with the ball in hand.
Enter Tapine.
His dynamic running game and offloading ability will present Canberra’s pack with a point-of-difference in the way they attack, amidst a rotation of big, hard running forwards. Just as Bateman broke open games with a skipping run across field or an unorthodox grubber in behind the line last year, so too can Tapine disrupt defensive systems and create space for others – or himself:
I’ll be looking for Tapine to play a roaming lock-forward role across the park this season.
It’s unlikely Ricky Stuart pushes Tapine into first receiver to distribute through the middle channel – he has Josh Hodgon and Tom Starling to move the ball around. But given a license to attack as he sees, we should get plenty of jinking runs and offloads from Tapine this season – generating second-phase play or quick-play-the-balls for the likes of Hodgson and Jack Wighton to capitalise on.
At 26 years of age, Tapine is just entering his prime as an NRL forward and I’m keen to see what he can produce with some added responsibility this season.
21 things for 2021: Joseph Tapine
Right Scrum-Line – Who is feeling the pressure this season?
I’m still getting my head around how far under the radar halfback George Williams flew in his debut NRL season. A glance at his stats from last year quickly silences any doubts about William’s status as a top tier halfback.
| George Williams stats (2020) | Rank among halves (2020) | |
|---|---|---|
| Tries | 7 | =2nd |
| Try assists | 17 | =3rd |
| Forced drop-outs | 19 | =3rd |
| Line breaks | 7 | =2nd |
| Tackle breaks | 37 | 4th |
| Tackle efficiency | 88% | 1st |
Playing a full 22 games in his first season in the NRL, Williams sits comfortably inside the top five for halfbacks in key stat areas around attacking output and building pressure. What is also impressive is his 88% tackle efficiency – comfortably the best among halves who played more than 20 games. Not only is he dangerous with the ball in hand but Williams can be trusted to hold his own in defence.
Perhaps it was the calibre of the players around him that left Williams as somewhat of a forgotten man in the tip-sheets last year, but it would surprise to see him left out again this time around. He can be forgiven for simply shifting the ball to Bateman quickly and often last season, but I’m expecting a different role for Williams in 2021. With hole running forwards Harawira-Naera or Young replacing Bateman on that edge, look for Williams to straighten hard at the line before hitting either men short and into space down Canberra’s right edge.
But rather than spend all season camped on one side, I’ll also be watching for Williams to roam a little more in 2021. Just as we saw Adam Reynolds and Cody Walker link up at first- and second-receiver across the field last year for the Rabbitohs, so too could Williams and Wighton combine in attack for the Raiders.
Wighton’s experience at centre and fullback has him well-equipped to play wide of the ruck where his elite running game is a nightmare for opposition defenders. With Williams slotting into first-receiver and playing the role of primary distributor, we could see Wighton in space down the tram-lines more often. This would also offset the lack of a ball-playing threat out wide from Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, who is a superb running fullback but is still developing his passing game.
Left Scrum-Line – My left-field thought for the season.
The Canberra Raiders will enter the 2021 season with great confidence around the strength and depth of their playing roster. Youngsters like Semi Valemei and Kai O’Donnell – good news stories from an injury ravaged 2020 campaign – will be better for the experience, and the Green Machine also welcome back champion hooker Josh Hodgson to steer them around the park this season.
But the forgotten man in all of this is new recruit Ryan James. He joins Canberra from the Titans on cut-price, two-year deal, and looms as a potential Buy of the Season if he has some luck with injuries. The big man looks fitter than ever before and his rangy build will compliment the big bodies of Josh Papali and Dunamis Lui in what has the potential to be an elite front-row rotation. Don’t sleep on the big fella!
Peak, Pass, Pit
Oscar and Jason give their predicted peak for the Raiders in 2021 along with a pass mark and worst-case scenario.
Peak
Grand Final: If the footy gods are real, surely they take a shine to Canberra after a horror run of injuries spoiled The Milk’s premiership chances in 2020. At their peak, this is an extremely well balanced squad with good depth who would not look out of place in a Grand Final – although that would be some achievement. ~OP
Minor Premiers/GF: The Raiders look good to challenge the minor premiership this season. They’re deep and most of the key players from last season return for this one. It’s somewhat difficult to believe given the few years prior to 2019, but they’ve become one of the most consistent teams in the NRL. ~JO
Pass
Finals Week 2-3: Another finals campaign seems a realistic pass mark for the Raiders this season. Their forward pack is tough and bristling with talent and they have the playmakers to go far in the competition. Do they have the class out wide to match it with the best teams though? ~OP
Finals Week 2-3: Whether or not the Raiders can finish towards the top of the NRL ladder and earn a week off in Week 2 of the finals, playing two games in September is the pass mark for 2021. ~JO
Pit
7th: It’s hard to see this squad finishing lower than 6th or maybe 7th in 2021. Given the roster at their disposal, the Green Machine will be aiming for a top four finish. The bottom rungs of the eight should be as bad as it gets for Canberra this year. ~OP
Sneaking into the Top 8: This team is one of the best on paper, but they’re not the same team without Wighton. If he is ruled out for an extended period and the Raiders are forced to reshape their attack, things could get hairy towards the bottom of the Top 8. ~JO
Sign up to Rugby League Writers for the 2021 NRL season
| Level | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| RLW Premium Membership | $0.00 now and then $5.00 per Month. | Select |
Free Membership: Access all free content at RugbyLeagueWriters.com and receive our weekly newsletter before each round of the 2021 NRL season.
Subscriber (Coming soon): Access to all content across RugbyLeagueWriters.com.
*Select ‘Free Membership’ now to receive an exclusive early bird offer before the start of the 2021 season.