NRL Notepad: Round 16

The Notepad identifies one key player, stat, trend or talking point for every team, every round of the 2021 NRL season.

---

Saturday

Bulldogs

I’ve never bought into the Kyle Flanagan hype. Even at the Roosters, his downturn in form beginning just as Victor Radley was ruled out for the season wasn’t a coincidence. Unsurprisingly, that downturn continued with the Bulldogs as the sorry state of their attack scored just 10.2 points per game in the nine Flanagan featured.

Now, just as Brandon Wakeham and Jake Averillo start to look comfortable in the halves, the former has made what could be a career-defining mistake off the field to give Flanagan another chance.

Trent Barrett has done the ‘give him the #6 jersey’ thing to hopefully take some pressure off Flanagan. It won’t, really. He’s not a prolific runner of the football. If he’s going to become a regular first-grade half, it will be as an organiser and traditional #7. Averillo, on the other hand, is a good ball runner. While Flanagan will wear #6 and Averillo #7, I expect to see them fill the roles that best suit their skill set.

For Flanagan, that means getting his hands on the ball in good ball areas and creating points. That’s manipulating the defensive line by passing players into positions, setting up shape, and executing accordingly. If his first action is to drop a player off underneath on Saturday afternoon, the Bulldogs are in trouble.

Sea Eagles

I didn’t expect to see Dylan Walker used as a middle forward when we previewed the Sea Eagles 2021 NRL season. While his excellent stint in the middle in Round 15 came against a poor Titans side, it is something he can build on. I’ll be watching closely for how Des Hasler uses him against the Bulldogs on Saturday afternoon.

I’m intrigued by Haumole Olakau’atu as well. He has been excellent throughout his eight games this season with Round 14 and 15 the best fortnight of his first-grade career. Karl Lawton is another interesting wrinkle in this Sea Eagles back row. Typically a hooker, he has looked right at home on the edge since arriving on the Northern Beaches. I might as well add Sean Keppie here, too. He is making just his second start in the #13 jersey this week in what has been a career year for the 23-year-old.

Manly are a personal favourite for me. They’re a weird and wacky group that don’t look like a top six team on paper, but here we are. Again, this back row has question marks around it, but like everything else, I expect them to have the answers on game day.

Raiders

Raiders, Raiders, Raiders…

As a believer in 2021 and a Josh Hodgson truther, you’re killing me!

It was all about Jack Wighton drifting over to the right side in the Round 15 Notepad. We did see it a few times last week before the Green Machine ran out of gas and allowed the Dragons to come back. That part of Wighton’s game stays on the list for this week. But, and it is very minor and possibly nothing, but I didn’t mind the look of this action:

It looks like nothing at first. Worse than nothing. It’s a poor kick on 5th tackle and a hand over. However, there’s a chance to create a nice little short side opportunity there if it is done a little bit differently.

It should ideally happen a tackle earlier for a start. So, Josh Hodgson linking up with Wighton is an appealing 3rd-tackle option that can begin this action. If Wighton looks to get out the outside shoulder of his man rather than cutting in, he can bring the three and four-in defender into the tackle (assuming he doesn’t crash over the line himself). Should Sam Williams sweep around just as he did in this play while Bailey Simonsson reloads a bit further from the ruck, there is potential for a four-on-three advantage down the short side if Wighton gets a quick play-the-ball away.

Maybe it’s something. Maybe it’s nothing. I do think using Wighton as a setup rather than the key cog in a shift is worth exploring, though.

Titans

I have officially run out of different ways to say the Titans attack is bad and that their defence is even worse.

You could point to 24 first half points as an improving attack if you really wanted, but all five tries coming from kicks is hardly promising moving forward. Tries off the boot are worth just as much as any other, but they don’t often translate into a good attack that can regularly create points. The second half in Round 15 proved as much when the Titans failed to make any inroads with the ball as the Sea Eagles ran in 48 unanswered points.

AJ Brimson is back this week. He will give Ash Taylor and Jamal Fogarty a ball playing option out the back of shape in good ball shifts. He also takes away any excuses for the under-pressure halfback pairing. If they can’t create good points – I’ve talked about repeatable actions a lot when it comes to the Titans – then Justin Holbrook is going to need to make changes.

Knights

So, the Knights decided to rule Kalyn Ponga out of Round 15 about 30 minutes after publishing the Notepad which was, obviously, Ponga related. For those that missed it:

The Knights have used 13 different names to fill the #1, #6, #7 and #9 jerseys since Round 1 last season.

Fullback: Kalyn Ponga, Tex Hoy, Kurt Mann
Five-eighth: Kurt Mann, Blake Green, Mason Lino, Phoenix Crossland, Connor Watson, Jake Clifford,
Halfback: Mitchell Pearce, Blake Green, Phoenix Crossland, Kurt Mann, Jake Clifford
Hooker: Jayen Brailey, Connor Watson, Andrew McCullough, Chris Randall, Kurt Mann, Sione Mata’utia

They’ve not played with what most would consider their first-choice spine since Jayden Brailey suffered an ACL injury in Round 2, 2020.

Provided the Knights don’t pull a swift one and pull Ponga out again, we’re finally going to see their first-choice spine out on the field.

As a backup, I’m looking out for Jake Clifford and the left-edge back rower. Clifford and Lachlan Fitzgibbon went into Round 15 with a plan to isolate Kodi Nikorima. Fitzgibbon ran straight over the top of him once in the first half.

Later, and from a similar starting point, Clifford shoveled on early ball to Fitzgibbon who once again targeted Nikorima in the line before the Warriors defence came to the rescue.

Tom Dearden isn’t much bigger than Nikorima so I’m expecting to see a similar plan again this week. For the punters, there might be a couple of sandwiches available here…

Cowboys

The Cowboys are reportedly in the market for Dale Finucane and I like it for them – a lot.

Jason Taumalolo is still the obvious choice at #13 should Finucane sign with the Cowboys. Still, Finucane can fill a massive hole in this group given his ability as a ball-player.

The Cowboys are dead last in general play passes with only 70.2 per game. For some perspective, the Panthers top the list with 120.5 passes per game. Penrith’s possession dominance obviously plays a part in that, but there is no denying North Queensland’s lack of ball-playing in the middle of the field. Right now, Taumalolo is the only Cowboys forward averaging more passes per game than Finucane.

While it’s an obvious issue within the Cowboys attack already, I’m keeping a closer eye on it this week given the Finucane news.

---

Sunday

Broncos

Kotoni Staggs returns this week. Although, not in the position I was expecting.